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Increase Of Up To 25% In The Price Of MDF Worries The Furniture Industry In Minas Gerais. Sector Fears A Drop In Sales, Layoffs, And Worsening Of The Crisis Until 2026.
The increase of up to 25% in the price of MDF has raised an alarm in the furniture industry of Minas Gerais, which fears it will not be able to absorb the impact on the cost of raw material and is already projecting possible declines in sales and layoffs in the second half of 2025. The adjustment surprised the sector because it occurred just as factories are negotiating collective agreements with a projected salary adjustment of up to 7.5%, which further pressures profit margins.
According to the president of the Union of Furniture and Wood Products Industries in the State of Minas Gerais (Sindimov-MG), Maurício Lima, there is no clear market justification for the increase, and there are indications of speculation in the price of MDF. He recalls that the 50% tariff imposed by Donald Trump on Brazilian wood and derivatives exports does not directly affect Minas, but should, in theory, favor lower prices in the domestic market, as part of the production could remain in Brazil.
Increase In MDF Prices Pressures Micro And Small Businesses
In Minas, the furniture production base is primarily made up of micro and small businesses, which rely on MDF boards to manufacture planned furniture and serve retail. For Lima, the sudden increase in raw material creates a domino effect: it raises the final product cost, decreases competitiveness, and may reduce sales in a traditionally busy period, such as the second half of the year.
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“The cost will change, and who pays that bill in the end is always the customer. This may strongly impact sales, and there is a risk that the issue will extend to 2026,” warns the president of Sindimov-MG.
MDF Price Adjustment Happens At A Time Of Instability In The Sector
Although the impact in Minas is indirect, on the national scene, the crisis in the furniture sector is directly connected to the so-called “tariff boost” from Donald Trump.
The promised 50% surcharge on wood products exported to the United States has led companies in the South, where about 90% of the installed capacity for processed wood production is concentrated, to suspend shipments and reduce factory output.
According to the Brazilian Association of Mechanically Processed Wood Industry (Abimci), part of the exports to the U.S. was halted even before the tariff took effect. The fear of losing competitiveness led industries to grant collective vacations and even announce layoffs.
Crises In The Furniture Sector: Reduced Production And Collapse Risk
The superintendent of Abimci, Paulo Roberto Pupo, explains that many American clients postponed purchases or canceled contracts due to uncertainty about prices. The Brazilian wood industry employs about 180,000 people and allocates, on average, 50% of production to the U.S. — a percentage that reaches 100% in some companies.
Sudati, a producer of plywood and MDF with units in Paraná and Santa Catarina, has already confirmed internal cuts. According to Pupo, a 50% surcharge would put Brazil “out of the game” in the American market, considered strategic for the sector.
Furniture Industry In Minas: Fear Of A Cascade Effect
In Minas, the reflection may be felt indirectly, but no less worrying. The increase in MDF costs compromises profitability, especially in a sector that already suffers from a lack of qualified labor and faces the need to maintain competitive prices to survive.
With rising input and wage costs, companies may pass on values to consumers, risking losing ground to competitors or seeing demand shrink.
The result could be a slowdown in production, reduction of shifts, and even layoffs, even in a state that is not directly affected by export tariffs.
Outlook For The End Of 2025 And Beginning Of 2026
The second half, which traditionally brings an increase in orders and sales, may perform below expectations.
If the external scenario remains unstable and MDF prices do not fall, the furniture industry in Minas will have to take measures to reduce costs, renegotiate deadlines with suppliers, or seek alternative raw materials — something that is not always viable, given the standardization required by the planned furniture market.
If the situation persists until 2026, the sector may face prolonged retraction, impacting the entire production chain, from MDF suppliers to retailers.
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