Baixa na demanda pode provocar fechamento de refinarias, segundo Goldman Sachs

Decline In Demand May Lead To Refinery Closures, According To Goldman Sachs

Written by Roberta Souza

Published on 03/07/2020 at 08:48

Baixa na demanda pode provocar fechamento de refinarias, segundo Goldman Sachs

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One of the Consequences of the Current Pandemic Is the Low Demand for Products from Refineries, Which May Close, Mainly in China and the Middle East

According to Goldman Sachs, the global refining industry is entering a consolidation phase, as the slowdown in oil demand growth is expected to occur simultaneously with large-scale projects that will start operations in 2021.

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According to the bank’s report, the impact of the pandemic on demand is still present, causing delays in several megaprojects in the refining sector, most in China and the Middle East, which will begin operations between 2021 and 2024. Compared to 2019, the overall utilization rate during this period is expected to be reduced by 3%.

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“We expect competition to intensify, leading to refining margins below consensus – and the average cycle – throughout 2021-22 and potential refinery closures in developed markets,” said analysts in the report. According to Goldman’s team, the projection is that global oil demand will return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2022.

Goldman Sachs stated that emerging markets are expected to account for most of the increase in oil consumption in the first half of this decade, and new large refineries will be located close to demand. This means that oil refineries in developed countries will have a higher chance of closing.

Analysts at the bank stated that gasoline and diesel consumption will return to 2019 levels next year, and it is unlikely that aviation fuel will reach last year’s level before 2023. They also mentioned that due to the increase in the consumption of petrochemical products, LPG and naphtha are expected to drive long-term growth, and overall oil demand will not peak before 2030.

Decline In Demand May Lead To Refinery Closures, According To Goldman Sachs

One of the Consequences of the Current Pandemic Is the Low Demand for Products from Refineries, Which May Close, Mainly in China and the Middle East

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