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INSS Forecast Indicates That Social Security Benefits Expenditures Will Reach BRL 1.072 Trillion in 2026. Increase Driven by Adjustments, New Assistance Programs, and STF Decision on Maternity Leave.
The National Institute of Social Security (INSS) projects that expenditures on social security benefits will rise to BRL 1.072 trillion in 2026.
This amount represents an increase of BRL 87.2 billion compared to the estimate of BRL 984.66 billion for 2025.
The 8.9% variation reflects the sum of minimum wage adjustments, the granting of new benefits, and the impacts of recent court decisions.
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These calculations will be included in the Annual Budget Law Project (PLOA) for 2026, which must be submitted to Congress by August 29.
The increase puts pressure on the fiscal framework, which limits spending based on the inflation accumulated until June (5.35%) and a projected real growth of 2.5% for the next year.
Impact of the STF Decision on Maternity Leave
One of the factors that most influenced the accounts was the decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) in March 2024, which declared unconstitutional the requirement of ten minimum contributions for self-employed workers to access maternity leave.
The INSS estimates that this flexibility will cost BRL 8.5 billion in 2026. In addition to allowing more requests, the measure opens space for retroactive claims by insured individuals whose requests were denied in the last five years.
The impact, although significant, was below the initial projection of BRL 12 billion disclosed by the institute itself.
Adjustments and Growth
The adjustment of the minimum wage is also crucial for the increase in expenditures. Currently set at BRL 1,518, the minimum wage will be corrected by 7.44%, which will add BRL 34.04 billion to the payroll. This change directly benefits 45.3% of the insured.
The replacement of the estimated inflation of 4.66% generates an additional effect of BRL 25.8 billion for the remaining beneficiaries. At the same time, the granting of new benefits, known as vegetative growth, is expected to add BRL 26.1 billion to the Social Security accounts.
Changes in Sick Leave and the Atestmed System
The government also made changes to sick leave in an effort to reduce the growing expenses of the program.
In June, the maximum period for granting via the Atestmed system was reduced from 180 to 30 days. This tool allows for the online analysis of medical certificates without in-person examinations.
The initial reduction in the deadline, however, could potentially increase the backlog of in-person examinations to 3.6 million cases by December.
In light of this risk, the deadline was extended to 60 days, on a transitional basis, valid for 120 days from the publication of the joint ordinance.
The change is expected to generate estimated savings of BRL 2.8 billion in 2026, offsetting part of the growth in other expenses.
Revision of Estimates for 2025
The INSS also revised the 2025 figures. The expenditure forecast changed from BRL 980.9 billion to BRL 984.66 billion.
This update reflects the pressure caused by the STF decision on maternity leave and the reduction in the waiting list for benefits.
The technical note released on July 21 also indicates that the flexibility of the rules will provide a gain of nearly BRL 4 billion, an amount that can be allocated to other government expenses.
Future Projections and Fiscal Challenges
Between 2027 and 2029, additional costs with social security benefits are expected to range from BRL 10.6 billion to BRL 11.6 billion per year. Over a four-year period, the impact could reach BRL 42.3 billion.
This scenario reinforces the challenges for the balance of public accounts.
The pressure on the spending cap of the fiscal framework may force the government to freeze discretionary expenses, such as investments and operating costs of the public administration.
Fiscal Adjustments and PEC 66
To address this increase, the government presented adjustments to the fiscal framework through the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) 66.
The measure provides for flexibility in the payment of court rulings by states and municipalities, in addition to excluding federal precatórios from the spending limit.
The proposal also establishes a ten-year transition to fully account for debts in the primary result target.
According to the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, the increase in the spending limit will bring neutrality in light of the STF decision’s impact, allowing for adjustments without compromising budget execution.
Pressure on the Public Budget
The combination of structural factors, such as adjustments and vegetative growth, with court decisions, like the maternity leave ruling, increases the challenges faced by Social Security.
The significant increase in expenditures demands rigorous monitoring and measures to prevent even greater fiscal imbalances.
The outlook for 2026 highlights how social security benefits have a growing weight in the federal budget, reinforcing the need for detailed planning and careful management of public spending.
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