The Brazilian energy matrix is about to undergo one of the most transformative changes in its history.
In a recent report by the National Electric System Operator (ONS), the forecast is that renewable energy sourcesLike solar and wind, will represent 51% of energy generation from Brazil to 2028. For the first time, traditional sources such as hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants will take a back seat, creating a new energy scenario in the country.
Brazil towards 51% renewable energy: a historic shift
Brazil is accelerating its energy transition. According to the Energy Operation Plan (PEN) released by the ONS, solar and wind power plants, together with biomass e small hydroelectric plants (SHPs), will lead energy production in the coming years. This marks a drastic change from the current scenario, where hydroelectric plants e thermoelectric are still dominant. This new arrangement not only positions Brazil as one of the largest generators of clean energy, but also offers a solution to mitigate climate change.
The country's generating capacity currently stands at 215 megawatts (MW), of which 41% comes from renewable sources. This figure will jump to 245 MW by 2028, driven mainly by distributed solar energy, i.e. solar panels installed in homes and small businesses.
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What are the new energy sources that will lead the sector?
To meet this growing demand, the following renewable sources are expanding:
1. Solar energy
The use of painéis solares installed on residential and commercial roofs has grown exponentially. In addition, large-scale solar parks are expanding across the country, especially in regions with high solar incidence, such as the Northeast.
2. Wind energy
Brazil is already one of the world leaders in wind power generation. With wind farms distributed mainly in the Northeast, coastal regions benefit from constant winds, making this one of the most promising energy sources.
3. Biomass
The use of biomass, from agricultural and industrial waste, is also gaining prominence in the energy sector. Its production is less intermittent and offers a reliable source of energy throughout the year.
4. Small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SHPs)
Although large hydroelectric plants are losing ground, PCHs, which have a lower environmental impact, will continue to contribute significantly to the national energy matrix.
Advantages of renewable sources in the Brazilian energy matrix
The transition to a matrix based largely on renewable sources brings several benefits:
- CO2 Emission Reduction: Replacing thermal power plants, which use fossil fuels, with clean sources such as solar and wind power will help Brazil achieve its climate goals and drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
- Cheaper Energy: With the expansion of distributed generation, especially with solar panels on rooftops, energy production will become more accessible and cheaper, benefiting millions of Brazilians.
- Greater Energy Independence: Renewable energy production reduces Brazil's dependence on imported fossil fuels and stabilizes supply, even during international crises.
Challenges of the energy transition
Although the benefits are clear, the transition to a renewable energy matrix also faces obstacles, mainly in relation to intermittency from sources such as solar and wind:
- Solar Intermittency: Solar energy generation depends on solar irradiance, which means that production is limited at night and on cloudy days. This generates a demand for energy storage solutions or complementary sources.
- Wind Variation: Wind power production is variable, as wind intensity changes throughout the day and seasons. Wind farms tend to generate more power at night, which may not coincide with peak demand times, such as late afternoon.
These operational challenges require innovative solutions to ensure the stability of the electrical system. One of the strategies used by ONS is the activation of hydroelectric plants e thermoelectric during peak demand, increasing what is called the “generation ramp” of these plants. However, this practice is not sustainable in the long term and can become a bottleneck for the growth of renewable energy.
How can Brazil overcome these challenges?
The success of the energy transition in Brazil will depend on a set of technological and regulatory strategies, such as:
- Investments in Energy Storage: Technologies such as lithium batteries and large-scale storage systems are essential to store the energy generated during the day and use it at night or during periods of low production.
- Expansion of Smart Grids: Smart grids that monitor and adjust energy production and consumption in real time are key to improving the efficiency and reliability of the electrical system.
- Incentives for Distributed Generation: Incentive programs to encourage more consumers, both residential and commercial, to install solar panels and other distributed generation solutions will be vital to increasing installed capacity without relying on large projects.
Clean energy: the solution for Brazil's future
With the advancement of technology and increased investments, Brazil is moving towards a future where clean energy will be the norm, not the exception. The target of 51% renewable sources by 2028 is not just an optimistic projection, but an essential step towards a more sustainable, secure and affordable energy system.
Furthermore, this transition will help Brazil meet its international commitments to combat climate change, as well as create thousands of jobs in the renewable energy sector. With proper planning and solutions to overcome the challenges, Brazil has the potential to be a global leader in clean energy production.
Brazil is on the cusp of an energy revolution, with renewable sources such as solar and wind power set to take the lead in the energy mix by 2028. However, to ensure the sustainability of this transition, it is essential to overcome the challenges of intermittency and invest in innovative technological solutions. The future of Brazilian energy will be cleaner, greener and more efficient.