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Is Brazil at risk? Scientists warn that the main Atlantic current could collapse, with global impacts

Published 25/10/2024 às 18:56
Is Brazil at risk? Scientists warn that the main Atlantic current could collapse, with global impacts
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The Atlantic Current, essential for the global climate, could soon collapse, scientists warn. Find out what the impacts of this threat could be for Brazil and the world in the coming centuries!

In an open letter published on October 21, a group of 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists, including Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, warned of the imminent risk of the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a vital role in regulating the global climate.

The letter, addressed to Nordic authorities, emphasizes that the slowdown of ocean currents in the Atlantic has been underestimated and that its consequences could be devastating and irreversible.

The AMOC, made up of currents including the well-known Gulf Stream, transports heat to the Northern Hemisphere and is essential for maintaining the region’s moderate climate. According to scientists, this “conveyor belt” of heat is slowing down, driven by global warming. Continued slowdown could push the system to breaking point, significantly altering the climate not only in Europe but throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

Potential Impacts of AMOC Collapse

The threat of AMOC collapse is not just a matter for scientists; it is a real risk to the daily lives of millions of people. The consequences of such a collapse include:

  1. Extreme Weather and Cooling in the Nordic Countries
    Should the AMOC cease to function, the Nordic countries of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden could experience a sharp drop in temperatures and extreme weather events. A “cold spot” over the North Atlantic resulting from the slowdown is already being observed, and its growth could make Nordic winters even harsher, as well as disrupt economic and social activities in the region.
  2. Changes in the Monsoon System
    Another catastrophic effect expected is the displacement of tropical monsoon systems, which would have serious impacts on agriculture in tropical countries. Monsoons, which are essential for agricultural production in regions such as Southeast Asia and India, would shift position, causing extreme droughts and insufficient harvests. These effects would have global repercussions on food supply and food security.
  3. Sea Level Rise on the US Atlantic Coast
    A collapse of the AMOC could cause sea levels to rise along the U.S. Atlantic coast, increasing the risk to coastal communities. This sea level rise occurs because ocean currents keep average water levels in coastal areas balanced, and a sudden disruption would increase the volume of water along the coast, putting cities and infrastructure at risk.
  4. Impact on Marine Life and the Fishing Industry
    Ocean circulation is also essential for maintaining water temperatures and nutrient distribution, which are essential conditions for marine life. The collapse of the AMOC would lead to an abrupt redistribution of nutrients, seriously affecting Atlantic ecosystems and fisheries. Fish populations and marine species such as cod and lobster could collapse, directly impacting economies that depend on fishing.

The Role of Global Warming and the Risk of Climate Catastrophe

Scientists say that accelerating climate change, largely fueled by greenhouse gas emissions, is largely responsible for the AMOC’s slowdown. As global temperatures rise, large volumes of freshwater are being dumped into the North Atlantic by melting glaciers, especially in Greenland. This freshwater changes the salinity and density of ocean water, disrupting heat circulation. According to the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is “medium confidence” that the AMOC will not collapse abruptly by 2100, but the signatory scientists consider this forecast to be a dangerous underestimate.

“The average confidence that the AMOC will not collapse is not comforting. We need to understand that even a low possibility of a collapse during this century should be taken very seriously,” the scientists said.

The letter was sent to the Nordic Council of Ministers, an intergovernmental body that coordinates cooperation between the Nordic countries. The scientists urge policymakers to seriously consider the risks that the collapse of the AMOC could pose, both to the countries of the North and to the world. They also recommend that the Council increase pressure on international partners to move towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to no more than 1,5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The Need for Immediate Climate Action

Without a robust and coordinated global response to curb carbon emissions and other practices that exacerbate global warming, the collapse of the AMOC could occur within the next few decades. While the exact timing is uncertain, experts agree that acting now is the only way to mitigate the catastrophic risks to the planet. This includes policies to reduce carbon emissions, investments in clean energy sources, and global initiatives to encourage environmental protection.

The scientific community is calling for substantial changes in the way countries approach global warming, and this recent warning reinforces the urgency of preserving climate balance.

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Fabio Lucas Carvalho

Journalist specializing in a wide range of topics, such as technology, politics, shipbuilding, geopolitics, renewable energy and economics. I have been working since 2015 with prominent publications in major news portals. My degree in Information Technology Management from Faculdade de Petrolina (Facape) adds a unique technical perspective to my analyses and reports. With over 10 thousand articles published in renowned media outlets, I always seek to bring detailed information and relevant insights to the reader. For story suggestions or any questions, please contact me by email at flclucas@hotmail.com.

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