Brazil Could Lead the World in Tax Burden Increase by 2050, by 9.8 Points, Study by Instituto Esfera Warns

Written by Maria Heloisa Barbosa Borges

Published on 23/09/2025 at 21:29

“Gastos tributários não são vilões, mas precisam de regras”: Esfera defende avaliação contínua para focar desonerações com resultados sociais

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Survey by Instituto Esfera Shows That Brazil Already Exceeds 34% of GDP in Taxes and May Be the Country with the Highest Global Increase in Tax Burden by 2050

A study from the Instituto Esfera, cited by IstoÉ Dinheiro, projects that Brazil will be the country with the largest increase in tax burden by 2050, reaching a jump of 9.8 percentage points. This advance places the country in a critical position against emerging economies, in a scenario where taxation already consumes more than one third of national GDP.

According to the survey, Brazil surpassed the 34% of GDP mark in taxes in 2024, while so-called tax expenditures, fiscal benefits, and renouncements exceed 4% of GDP.

For specialists, the lack of clear governance in granting these advantages threatens to further increase fiscal pressure in the coming decades.

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Brazil Among the Leaders in Taxation

The study reminds us that Brazil is already among the most heavily taxed emerging economies, in contrast to other developing countries that seek to maintain leaner tax systems to attract investments.

The upward trend until 2050 reinforces the warning for entrepreneurs and workers, who may feel the weight on consumption, income, and the country’s competitiveness.

According to Camila Funaro Camargo Dantas, CEO of Instituto Esfera, tax expenditures are not “villains” by nature but need to be clear instruments of public policy, with defined starts and ends.

Otherwise, the country risks sustaining a system that generates costs without delivering effective social returns.

The Weight of Fiscal Renouncements

The report highlights that Simples Nacional accounts for about 22% of federal government renouncements, followed by incentives to the agricultural sector, benefits in income tax for individuals, and regional development programs.

In some cases, such as in the Ministry of Agriculture, tax expenditures can be five times greater than the ministry’s direct budget.

This imbalance reinforces the study’s criticism: Brazil lacks robust mechanisms for transparency, periodic review, and efficiency criteria to assess whether these policies truly deliver returns to society.

Reforms as a Way Out

A possible solution pointed out by the survey is the regulation of tax reform, ongoing until 2028.

Among the proposals is the creation of the General Law on Tax Expenditures (LGGT), which would limit incentives to 2% of GDP starting in 2027 and create rules for granting, evaluating, and gradually reducing these benefits.

Economist Pedro Fernando Nery, author of the research “Tax Expenditures in a Scenario of Growing Tax Burden: The Challenge of Reforming,” notes that this adjustment would be essential to avoid the increase in tax burden compromising economic efficiency and fiscal justice in the country.

The prospect of Brazil leading the increase in tax burden by 2050 raises an alarm for society, government, and the productive sector.

The challenge lies in balancing revenue, incentives, and competitiveness without suffocating companies and consumers.

Brazil may lead the world in increasing tax burden by 2050, with 9.8 points, warns Instituto Esfera study — Lack of governance in tax expenditures increases costs and reduces effectiveness; Esfera proposes transparency, deadlines, and clear counter-proposals.

And you, do you believe that Brazil will be able to limit tax expenditures or will the burden of taxes continue to grow uncontrollably? How might this trend impact your daily life? Share your opinion in the comments.

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Brazil Could Lead the World in Tax Burden Increase by 2050, by 9.8 Points, Study by Instituto Esfera Warns

Survey by Instituto Esfera Shows That Brazil Already Exceeds 34% of GDP in Taxes and May Be the Country with the Highest Global Increase in Tax Burden by 2050

Brazil Among the Leaders in Taxation

The Weight of Fiscal Renouncements

Reforms as a Way Out

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Brazil Could Lead the World in Tax Burden Increase by 2050, by 9.8 Points, Study by Instituto Esfera Warns

Survey by Instituto Esfera Shows That Brazil Already Exceeds 34% of GDP in Taxes and May Be the Country with the Highest Global Increase in Tax Burden by 2050

Brazil Among the Leaders in Taxation

The Weight of Fiscal Renouncements

Reforms as a Way Out

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