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Specialists Recently Stated That Ukraine Does Not Have the Significant Rare Earth Reserves Speculated by Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The Declaration Calls Into Question Theories About Supposed American Strategic Interests in Ukrainian Territory.
The recent signing of a preliminary agreement between Ukraine and the United States under Donald Trump, aimed at the exploration of strategic minerals, excited sectors related to electric mobility and clean energy. However, despite the initial optimism, experts warn that technical, economic, and geopolitical obstacles limit the practical viability of this commitment involving rare earths.
Ukrainian Rare Earths That Donald Trump Wants
The agreement specifically mentions so-called rare earths, essential for various modern technologies.
These minerals are used in the manufacture of electric motors, consumer electronics, military equipment, and navigation systems. More recently, they have gained importance in the data centers that drive Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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It is worth noting that the demand for rare earths skyrocketed after Donald Trump announced an ambitious economic stimulus for the AI sector.
The plan anticipates a large volume of these essential minerals. Trump suggested that the Ukraine-U.S. agreement could generate up to US$ 500 billion in future profits.
However, experts question the practical viability of these promises. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg analyst, recently stated that Ukraine does not possess rare earths “commercially exploitable“.
The declaration is based on technical reports from the Ukrainian Geological Research Center, which describe geological difficulties such as fractured rocks, constant flooding risks, and unstable clay soils.
Additionally, the accuracy of the available geological data raises doubts. The official maps released by the government of Volodymyr Zelensky are still the same as those from the Soviet era, according to a study by the consulting firm S&P Insights.
Thus, experts point out the need for rigorous updates to confirm whether exploitable rare earth reserves actually exist.
Infrastructure and Investments
Another major obstacle identified by experts concerns Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, severely damaged by the war.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington recently highlighted that global mining consumes nearly 15% of all available electricity in the world. But, currently, Ukraine operates with only one-third of its pre-conflict energy capacity.
This scenario raises concerns, as starting a mine from scratch can take up to two decades by international standards. Arnoldus Van den Hurk, from the specialized consultancy 4mining, clarifies that Ukraine currently has only “inferred resources” and not proven reserves. This limits its immediate attractiveness to international investors.
Geopolitics of Rare Earths
The agreement, however, has relevance that goes beyond the purely economic aspect. For the United States, it is about diversifying its strategic supply chains, reducing dependence on China. Today, China dominates approximately 60% of the global market for these essential minerals.
Included among the strategic minerals in the agreement are gallium, crucial for semiconductors widely used in advanced technologies, and hafnium, primarily used in the military industry.
Interestingly, however, the U.S. Geological Survey does not list Ukraine as a known producer of rare earths. The country does indeed have smaller reserves of lithium, cobalt, and titanium, which are important in batteries and lightweight metal alloys.
However, analysts warn that these volumes are much smaller compared to other global players already established in the market, such as Australia and Brazil.
Environmental Implications and Strategic Opportunities
Another aspect of the agreement involves the environmental issues related to mining. The United States and the European Union have strict regulations on processing these minerals, often limiting their exploitation potential.
In this scenario, Ukraine could offer a strategic window of opportunity, providing more flexible regulatory conditions due to its long tradition in mining and metallurgy.
However, doubts remain about Ukraine’s technical, financial, and environmental capacity to compete globally in the short term.
Europe, in turn, watches the agreement cautiously, concerned about the potential diversion of investments originally intended for its own green transition.
An Uncertain but Relevant Future
The Kiev-Washington agreement highlights a strategic commitment that blends national security, energy transition, and global competition.
Although Ukrainian rare earths are the subject of well-founded technical skepticism, the potential in lithium and other essential minerals remains real.
The challenge for Ukraine and the United States will therefore be to balance geopolitical ambitions with current economic and sustainable limitations.
A delicate but fundamental balance to ensure a strategic place in the future of electric mobility and advanced technologies, which are crucial for the coming decades.
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