In 2024, Brazil's industrial sector grew more than its GDP, but the lack of qualified workers threatens the future of the market. Will Brazil be able to overcome this challenge?
When we talk about industrial growth, it is natural to imagine a scenario of prosperity, opportunities and economic advancement.
But what happens when this exponential growth runs into an unexpected problem?
The Brazilian industrial sector, despite recording impressive numbers in 2024, faces an obstacle that threatens to limit its potential: a lack of skilled labor.
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Record growth in 2024
The industrial sector in Brazil registered a growth of 3,5% until the third quarter of 2024, according to data released by the Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg).
This performance surpassed the increase in national GDP, which was 3,3% in the same period.
In Minas Gerais, the scenario was even more positive: the mining industry grew 4,2%, while the state GDP increased 2,8%.
Among the highlights of the sector, the extraction segment showed significant growth of 6,3% in Minas Gerais, well above the national average of 2%.
Civil construction also had a year of robust expansion, with growth of 8,9%, while the energy and sanitation sectors grew by 7,5%.
This industrial performance is linked, according to Fiemg, to the increase in the average income of Brazilians since 2022, which boosted family spending.
With the unemployment rate reaching 5% in Brazil, the lowest rate since 2012, the job market was buoyant.
In Minas Gerais, 11 million people were employed in the third quarter of 2024, with 2,53 million working in the industrial sector, an increase of 5,7% compared to the previous year.
The lack of qualified labor
Despite the positive numbers, Fiemg president Flávio Roscoe pointed out a significant bottleneck for the continuity of this growth: the shortage of qualified professionals.
“The biggest problem in the industry today is the lack of skilled workers to meet the growing demand,” Roscoe said.
The situation is even more critical in sectors that require specific technical knowledge.
Many employers are struggling to fill positions, even with unemployment at historically low levels.
Proposals for the job market
To mitigate this problem, Fiemg suggested integrating income transfer programs with the formal labor market.
Flávio Roscoe highlighted that it is necessary modernize the Bolsa Família to encourage entry into the job market without the risk of immediate loss of benefits.
Among the proposals is the creation of a “suspended registry”, which would allow the beneficiary to return to the program in the event of unemployment, without having to go through the entire registration process again.
Additionally, Roscoe suggested penalizing those who repeatedly turn down job offers.
“It is not society’s objective for a person to remain exclusively in income transfer programs throughout their entire life,” declared the president of Fiemg.
Economic outlook for 2025 in industry
Although the 2024 results are encouraging, projections for 2025 are more modest.
According to Fiemg's chief economist, João Gabriel Pio, the expected growth for the industrial sector in Minas Gerais is 2,8%, while the expected increase for the state's GDP is 2,1%.
Nationally, GDP is expected to grow by just 1,8%, and industry by 1,7%.
These forecasts reflect the challenges faced by the Brazilian economy, such as high public debt, persistent inflation and high interest rates.
Roscoe said that although revenue has increased in recent years, public spending has grown even more, which is causing concern in the market.
Impacts of the devaluation of the real
Another point raised by the president of Fiemg was the devaluation of the real.
Although this trend benefits export sectors, such as agribusiness and mining in Minas Gerais, it also brings challenges.
“A higher dollar drives inflation and reduces consumers’ purchasing power,” Roscoe explained.
However, he highlighted that the positive impact on exports could partially offset these losses for the Minas Gerais economy.
Criticism and praise of the federal government
Flávio Roscoe criticized the spending cut packages presented by the federal government, classifying them as insufficient to resolve the country's fiscal problems.
He advocated tougher, longer-term measures to balance public accounts.
Despite the criticism, Roscoe praised the performance of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, stating that he has adopted a responsible stance in the face of difficulties.
The challenge of qualification in the industry
With a challenging economic scenario ahead, the Brazilian industrial sector needs to invest in training qualified workers to ensure continued growth.
Integration between government, industry and education will be crucial to overcome this bottleneck and transform the current moment of expansion into a sustainable cycle of development.
Do you think Brazil will be able to solve the problem of the lack of qualified workers in the coming years? Leave your opinion in the comments!
States and municipalities need to invest in workforce training, monitor those who receive financial support and qualify them for the job market.
Modernizing or updating the CLT and correcting distortions in income transfer programs (such as some suggestions mentioned in the article) seem to be the way forward. As for increasing income, there is no way to avoid increasing productivity, which involves quality education.
They talk and talk, but they never mention which specifications are missing. We need to encourage study or specialization in certain areas. Those that are missing.
I want to go work outside my city but I don't have the opportunity to work outside.
Take advantage of the fact that you are going to invest and hire me
In my opinion, it is not worth studying and qualifying to work as an employee! I know professionals who have not invested anything in courses and are working as auto mechanics, using YouTube as guidance to carry out some repairs. And taking into account that the public health and welfare system is bankrupt. Not to mention the salaries offered by employers, the trend among these young people is to work for themselves.
I worked and retired, managing to save money with employers who were generous in offering me salaries and benefits. Which is hard to see these days! I watched the group that acquired the hospital where I worked cut salaries in half for new hires and even increased their working hours! There wasn't one who stayed at the company for very long. I stayed for 28 years because they couldn't change my hours or reduce my salary! It's hard to keep employees that way!!!