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After Years Of Strength, International Monetary Fund Points Out That Demand Moderation And The Impact Of Import Tariffs Spark An Alert About Growth And Inflation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this Thursday that the U.S. economy is showing clear signs of pressure. After a long period of resilience, domestic demand is moderating and job growth is slowing, indicating new and significant challenges for the country’s economic outlook.
Low Demand And Job Slowdown: The Symptoms Of Cooling
The U.S. economy, which has shown considerable resilience in recent years, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. According to IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack, “ Domestic demand has moderated in the U.S., and job growth is slowing.”
The confirmation of this scenario came with data from the U.S. government. It was reported that, in the 12 months leading up to March, 911,000 jobs were created fewer than previously estimated. This revision, classified by the IMF as “a bit larger” than the average, indicates that the job market had already stagnated before the imposition of aggressive tariffs.
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How Import Tariffs Became An Inflationary Threat
A central concern is the tariffs imposed on imports. According to the IMF, these rates increase the risks of rising inflation, which is heading toward the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the U.S. central bank.
Julie Kozack explained that the anticipation of imports at the beginning of the year, as a way to avoid tariffs, generated volatility in economic activity. Now, the effect of these rates on prices becomes a concrete and imminent risk.
The IMF Recommendation To The U.S. Central Bank On Interest Rates
In light of the combination of these factors, the IMF sees room for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. However, the institution makes an important caveat: any decision should be taken with caution.
The guidance is for the Fed to closely monitor emerging economic data before making any changes, seeking to balance stimulus for the U.S. economy with controlling inflationary risks.
Revised Employment Numbers Confirm The New Economic Reality
The significant downward revision in employment numbers serves as proof of the cooling. The finding that job growth was already at a slower pace reinforces the moderation scenario and suggests that the U.S. economy faces structural challenges that go beyond recent trade policies.
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