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INMET forecasts rain up to 100 mm above average in northern Amapá and northeastern Pará, with risk of fungal diseases, difficult harvest, and drought in the North starting in July.
According to INMET, the Monthly Agroclimatic Bulletin, released on May 11, 2026, projects that northern Amapá and northeastern Pará may record rainfall accumulations up to 100 millimeters above the climatological normal between May and July. In the same region, soil moisture is expected to remain above 70% during May and June.
This condition favors the initial development of crops but also creates a risk environment for fungal diseases, harvest delays, and difficulty in rural road traffic. The problem worsens in areas where the soil remains saturated for several consecutive days.
In southeastern Pará and Tocantins, where the second-crop corn is in the reproductive and maturation phase, the combination of persistent rain and high humidity can affect grain quality and increase the incidence of diseases. However, from July onwards, the scenario changes: southern Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, southern Pará, and Tocantins may have soil moisture below 30%.
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Rains above 60 mm in the North and parts of the Northeast, as well as isolated storms with lightning and wind gusts in the South, according to INMET’s forecast for May 20 to 27.
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Heavy rain may hit the North and Southeast between May 18 and 25, according to INMET’s forecast, with accumulations above 200 mm in Amazonas and intense showers between Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo.
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Rain above average in Amapá and Pará may exceed 100 mm
Northern Amapá usually records high rainfall volumes in May, at the end of the rainiest period of the year. Under normal conditions, the region can receive between 250 mm and 350 mm in the month.
When INMET projects up to 100 mm above average, the monthly accumulation can exceed 400 mm in some areas. This volume is enough to compromise rural roads, harvest operations, and grain transportation.
The excess rain does not have the same impact everywhere. For riverside communities, fuller rivers can facilitate navigation; for rainfed crops, waterlogged soil can delay harvest and reduce quality.
Soil moisture above 70% favors crops but increases agricultural risk
Soil moisture above 70% can help crops in the growth phase, especially when there is no water shortage. The problem arises when this excess combines with frequent rain, heat, and a short drying window.
Under these conditions, heavy machinery has difficulty entering production areas. Harvesters and grain trucks can sink in fields with saturated soil, compact the ground, and cause structural damage to the soil.
The producer with corn, rice, or another crop ready to harvest faces a progressive loss of quality. Ripe grains exposed to continuous rain can absorb moisture, germinate before harvest, or develop fungi.
Fungal diseases threaten corn, beans, and soybeans in Pará and Tocantins
Phytosanitary risk is one of the most important points of the bulletin. High humidity, elevated temperature, and wet leaves for many hours create a favorable environment for the proliferation of fungi in the fields.
Diseases like corn rust, white mold in beans, and soybean phytophthora blight develop more strongly when relative humidity remains high for prolonged periods.
In second-crop corn during grain filling, intense fungal infection can reduce productivity and compromise commercial quality. The risk increases because frequent rain makes efficient fungicide application difficult.
Waterlogged soil reduces window for fungicide application
Even when the producer identifies disease symptoms, intervention is not always simple. With saturated soil, the entry of sprayers can cause compaction, create tracks, and damage plants.
Moreover, rain showers can wash away products applied before the necessary time for adequate action. This reduces management efficiency and increases operational costs.
The challenge is to choose the correct window between one rain and another. In the scenario predicted by INMET, phytosanitary control depends on daily monitoring and quick response, not just the traditional agricultural calendar.
Drought in the North may advance in July after excess rain
The most complex point of the forecast is the rapid transition between excess moisture and a sharp drop in soil water stocks. According to the bulletin, the south of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, south of Pará, and Tocantins may register humidity below 30% in July.
This change in a few weeks complicates agricultural planning. The producer first needs to deal with waterlogged soil, delayed harvest, and risk of fungi; then, with water deficit, increased evapotranspiration, and loss of pasture vigor.
The transition is especially critical for crops still in the field. When drought arrives during flowering or grain filling, the impact on productivity can be much greater.
Second crop corn may lose productivity with water stress
In Tocantins and parts of southeastern Pará, the second crop corn may still be in sensitive phases between May and July. Lack of water during flowering and grain filling is one of the most detrimental conditions for the crop.
Studies by Embrapa cited in the base text indicate that water stress in these phases can cut productivity by up to 50%. This makes the forecast of soil moisture decline in July a point of concern for producers who planted later.
The risk is greater when planning was based solely on historical averages. In a year with a higher probability of El Niño, the agricultural window may shift and leave crops in a critical phase at the beginning of the drought.
El Niño may amplify extremes of rain and drought in the North
The bulletin cites a probability of 88% of El Niño in the May-June-July quarter, according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. This factor increases concern because it can amplify regional extremes.
In practice, El Niño may favor more rain where the atmosphere is already humid and reinforce drought in areas entering the period of water reduction. Therefore, the North may face excess rain in one area and rapid moisture loss in another.
The result is a difficult management scenario. It’s not just about raining too much or too little, but about quickly alternating between water excess, fungal disease, saturated soil, and agricultural drought.
INMET recommends advancing harvest and monitoring forecast daily
The bulletin points out clear operational priorities for producers. The first is to advance the harvest where corn and rice have already reached physiological maturity, avoiding waiting for an ideal dry soil condition if the grain is already ready.
Each additional day of rain increases the risk of germination on the cob, deterioration, and fungi. The second priority is to follow short-term forecasts to take advantage of windows between rain fronts.
The third is to document any losses. Images, maps, technical reports, and quick communication to rural insurance or Proagro can be decisive in validating damages in case of a claim.
Producer must notify rural insurance within 72 hours after damage
The base text highlights the importance of notifying a rural insurance claim within the first 72 hours after any documented damage event. This timeframe may be contractual and, if missed, can compromise coverage.
The recommendation is especially important for crops affected by excessive rain, loss of quality, inability to harvest, flooding, wind, disease, or subsequent drought. The better the documentation, the greater the chance of proving the impact.
The record should include photos, dates, location, plot maps, and technical reports when possible. In a period of climatic extremes, document management becomes part of agricultural management.
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