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Mosquitoes, extreme heat, and uncontrollable rains: climate alert in the UK exposes a scenario that Brazil is already beginning to face with dengue, floods, and pressure on hospitals
What seems like a distant alert, coming from Wales, could be a frightening picture of the future for millions of Brazilians. A report on climate adaptation has raised the red flag for deadly heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and the spread of disease-carrying mosquitoes.
The main source used as a basis is the report from the Climate Change Committee on climate adaptation in Wales, which assesses climate risks and points out failures in the country’s preparation for extreme events. The British situation serves as an example, but the message also strongly resonates in Brazil.
After all, if a region known for its colder climate is already concerned with extreme heat, pressure on hospitals, floods, and mosquitoes, imagine the size of the alert for a tropical country where dengue, heavy rains, and heatwaves are already part of the reality.
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The alert that came from abroad but speaks directly to Brazil
In the case of Wales, experts warn that hotter summers could become the “new normal”. The report cited in the base text states that prolonged heatwaves, lasting at least a week, are expected to become more common by mid-century.
The most alarming data involves deaths caused by heat. In a scenario of global warming of 4 °C by 2100, the UK could record up to 18,000 annual heat-related deaths, in addition to the spread of disease-carrying mosquitoes in some areas.
For the Brazilian public, this alert takes on another dimension. Here, extreme heat is not a distant hypothesis: it already pressures cities, street workers, the elderly, children, people with chronic diseases, and families living in poorly ventilated homes.
Mosquitoes on the rise: the point that most frightens Brazilians
The most sensitive part for Brazil lies in the disease-transmitting mosquitoes. In Wales, the report talks about the possibility of proliferation in previously less exposed areas. In Brazil, this threat already has a known name: Aedes aegypti.
Fiocruz points out that heatwaves, climate change, incomplete urbanization, and high circulation of people are associated with the expansion of dengue to new areas in Brazil. In other words, what appears as an emerging risk in colder countries is already a recurring emergency in Brazilian territory.
The Butantan Institute also highlights that heat and humidity favor the reproduction of vectors, while the circulation of different types of the virus increases the complexity of outbreaks. In other words: the more the climate becomes disorganized, the harder it is to control the disease.
Dengue, heat, and hospitals: a dangerous combination
Brazil experienced a critical scenario in 2024, with more than 6.4 million probable cases of dengue and almost 6 thousand deaths recorded, according to data from the Arbovirus Monitoring Panel of the Ministry of Health cited by Agência Brasil.
This number helps explain why the international alert should not be treated as something distant. When the heat increases, when the rains become irregular, and when there is water accumulation in urban areas, the risk of an explosion of cases grows rapidly.
The problem is not confined to homes. It reaches health centers, hospitals, UPAs, and emergency rooms, which have to deal with high fever, dehydration, intense pain, severe cases, and vulnerable patients. In this context, the climate crisis also becomes a public health crisis.
Floods and droughts: Brazil knows this drama up close
The report on Wales also draws attention to floods, droughts, and pressure on emergency services. There, hundreds of thousands of properties are in risk areas due to more intense rains and rising sea levels.
In Brazil, this type of threat is easily recognizable. Large cities suffer from sudden floods, vulnerable slopes, overflowing rivers, and entire neighborhoods paralyzed by storms. At the same time, other regions face severe drought, wildfires, and water shortages.
This brutal contrast shows one of the most dangerous aspects of the new climate: at some moments, too much water; at others, too little water. And those who pay the price first are usually the population living in more fragile areas.
Nursing homes, schools, and hospitals need to enter the center of the discussion
One of the strongest recommendations of the British alert involves cooling measures in hospitals, schools, and nursing homes. The document mentions alternatives such as air conditioning, curtains, blinds, ventilation, and tree planting to reduce the impact of heat.
This point should also concern Brazil. Many schools, daycare centers, health units, and nursing homes operate in buildings that were not prepared for extreme temperatures. On days of intense heat, stuffy rooms and environments without adequate ventilation can become a real risk.
It’s not just about comfort. It’s about protecting lives, especially those who have less ability to react to thermal stress: the elderly, babies, hospitalized patients, and people with reduced mobility.
The final warning: the future has already begun
The case of Wales shows that even historically colder regions are rushing to adapt. Brazil, in turn, already deals with many of the problems the report describes as a growing threat: extreme heat, dengue, floods, fires, and pressure on public services.
The difference is that, here, the impact can be even more direct. The country has a climate favorable to mosquitoes, urban inequality, incomplete sanitation in various areas, and millions of people exposed to vulnerable housing.
The warning is harsh but necessary: Brazil cannot wait for the disaster to get bigger to act. When the climate changes, it doesn’t just alter the weather forecast. It changes the routine of cities, the safety of families, the functioning of hospitals, and the risk of diseases that already scare the entire country.
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