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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the Chinese-flagged tanker Ocean Koi in the Strait of Hormuz on May 8, amid the open war between Iran and the United States that began in February, threatening the flow of 1.6 million barrels daily that China receives from the Tehran regime.
The seizure of the Chinese tanker Ocean Koi occurred during a rapid boarding operation by Iranian forces.
According to Army Recognition, the ship was carrying Iranian condensate sanctioned by the United States.
According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Washington had added the ship to the sanctions list on February 25, 2026.
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Compared to previous seizures, this is the first after the start of the open US-Iran war.
Therefore, the incident exposes the fragility of the global oil corridor that passes through Hormuz.
Subsequently, the American Navy intensified patrols in the Persian Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz transports 30% of the world’s crude oil in just 33 km of width
According to the American Energy Information Administration (EIA), Hormuz moves 21 million barrels/day.
In comparison, this represents 30% of the total oil transported by sea.
According to the Pentagon, the strait has a minimum width of 33 km at its narrowest point.
Firstly, the navigable channel is only three kilometers for each direction.
Secondly, the daily traffic is 60 large tankers.
On the other hand, any disruption in Hormuz immediately spikes global prices.
China imports 1.6 million barrels per day from Iran despite American sanctions
According to Bloomberg, China imports between 1.3 and 1.6 million barrels daily from Iran since 2024.
In other words, this volume represents 80% to 90% of Iranian oil exports.
According to analysts, Iranian oil is sold at a discount of $8 to $12 per barrel.
Firstly, this helps Beijing supply independent refineries in Shandong Province.
Secondly, the discount makes the operation economically attractive despite the risk of secondary sanctions.
As reported by Al Jazeera, the Iranian ghost fleet operates under flags of convenience.
While Brazil exports 1.7 million barrels/day, Hormuz pressures Brent prices
According to Petrobras, Brazil exported an average of 1.7 million barrels/day in 2025.
In comparison, 94% of Brazilian exports go to China — more than the Iranian volume.
According to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), Brent closed May 2026 at $91 per barrel.
In other words, any closure of Hormuz could push the price to $130 to $150.
Therefore, Petrobras positions itself as an alternative medium oil supplier for Chinese refineries.
Similarly, pre-salt projects could capitalize on the crisis if there is a sustained interruption.
- Minimum width of Hormuz: 33 km
- Daily traffic: 21 million barrels (30% of the global maritime total)
- Chinese import from Iran: 1.3-1.6 million bpd
- Iranian oil discount: $8-12 per barrel
- OFAC sanctions: Executive Order 13902
- Start of US-Iran war: February 28, 2026
The US-Iran war began on February 28 after the assassination of Khamenei
According to the Crisis Group, on February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran.
According to the UK House of Commons Library, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in the early hours of the conflict.
Firstly, Iran responded with ballistic missile launches against American bases in the Gulf.
Secondly, Yemeni Houthi militias resumed attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.
Subsequently, Russia denounced the operation as a violation of international law.
As reported by the Wikipedia page on the Hormuz crisis 2026, commercial traffic dropped 35% in the first month.
The oil market is already pricing in the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz
According to Goldman Sachs, the Brent risk premium rose to $15 per barrel after the seizure.
According to JPMorgan, hedge funds increased long positions in oil by 280% in three months.
Compared to 2023, before the conflict, Iranian oil sold at a $4 discount — now it reaches $12.
In other words, geopolitical risk is already incorporated into the price.
Therefore, OPEC+ held an extraordinary meeting in April and decided to maintain production.
As reported by Reuters, Saudi Arabia offered extra volume to Asian customers.
The CPG archive covers the Hormuz crisis and its impact on the global chain
CPG recently published about the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the sanctioned tankers, in the site’s archive.
Subsequently, the site also published an analysis on Brazil as an alternative exporter to China, with data from Petrobras.
In other words, the Ocean Koi is a key piece in a geopolitical game affecting the Brazilian pre-salt.
On the other hand, some warn that the conflict could escalate to a complete closure of the strait.
Next steps: ceasefire unlikely until the next UN Assembly
Firstly, the UN Security Council is paralyzed by Russian and Chinese vetoes.
Next, the General Assembly in September should attempt a new resolution.
Finally, analysts project that the crisis will last until at least the fourth quarter of 2026.
However, some bet on an Iranian ceasefire due to economic necessity.
Nevertheless, the Tehran regime signaled that it will not back down. Still, the seizure of the Ocean Koi indicates that Tehran intends to use the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical lever while the conflict lasts.
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