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Scheduled shipments become JBS priority
Starting Saturday (20), JBS suspended the production of specific beef cuts for China, in an attempt to prevent Brazilian shipments from reaching the Asian country after the exhaustion of the import quota set for 2026.
The measure was taken amid the advancement of Brazilian shipments and the concern of meatpacking plants with the surcharge applied on volumes that exceed the limit authorized by Chinese import rules.
In Brazil, the decision affects a significant part of the company’s operations, as 18 of JBS’s 34 Brazilian units are authorized to export beef to the Chinese market.
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In these plants, the guidance has shifted to focus activities on deboning and shipping already scheduled loads, without expanding the production of new cuts intended for the Chinese market.
China quota changes calculation of beef exports
Behind the suspension is the safeguard adopted by China for global beef imports, a mechanism that has begun to directly influence the planning of exporting meatpacking plants in Brazil.
According to a joint statement released by the Brazilian government on December 31, 2025, the measure came into effect on January 1, 2026, with a planned duration of three years.
For Brazil, the rule created an initial annual quota of 1.1 million tons, within which beef remains subject to the regular entry tariff in the Chinese market.
Once this limit is exceeded, shipments begin to incur an additional surcharge of 55%, which can raise the total taxation to 67% and reduce the economic viability of new sales.
By May 9, data cited by Canal Rural indicated that Brazil had already used more than 50% of the authorized volume for the year, a sign that raised an alert among exporters.
Only in May, with nearly 154 thousand tons shipped to China, meatpacking plants and importers began to adopt a more cautious stance, especially because of the loads still in transit.
Scheduled shipments become JBS’s priority
In practice, the company tries to reduce the risk of products shipped on schedule arriving in China when the quota is already filled and subject to additional charges.
Since the extra tariff applies to the excess volume, the difference between producing, shipping, and unloading within the limit has become a direct factor in the commercial strategy of the slaughterhouses.
Renato Costa, president of Friboi and the board of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries, stated that the priority after the suspension will be to dispatch the already contracted loads.
With this reorganization, the company seeks to avoid exposure to the additional tariff while preserving the operational flow of Brazilian units authorized to serve the Chinese market.
Part of the production that will no longer go to China is expected to be redirected to the Brazilian domestic market and other international destinations already served by the company.
Even so, this alternative does not eliminate the commercial difficulty because China holds a central position in the foreign trade of Brazilian beef and absorbs a significant portion of shipments.
The Brazilian government’s own note states that China accounted for 52% of the sector’s external sales in 2024, a percentage that helps to gauge Brazil’s dependency.
Furthermore, the document states that Brazil is the main source of beef imports in the Chinese market, a factor that amplifies the impact of any regulatory changes on the national industry.
Domestic market gains weight in the strategy of slaughterhouses
With production for China halted, part of the commercial effort shifts to domestic consumption, where the company tries to compensate for the temporary reduction in export pace.
Renato Costa also bets on increased domestic sales, driven by the World Cup and brand promotion actions carried out in recent months, according to information published by Canal Rural.
The absorption of this volume by the Brazilian market, however, depends on price, income, retail campaigns, and distribution capacity, factors that can limit the speed of redirection.
Although it helps reduce losses, the domestic market does not automatically replace the scale of the Chinese buyer, which for years has influenced the pace of slaughter and price formation in Brazil.
Another path for the slaughterhouses will be to strengthen sales to already served international destinations, provided there is sufficient demand and competitiveness to accommodate part of the meat previously directed to China.
This expansion, however, depends on sanitary approvals, trade agreements, local demand, and competitive pricing, conditions that do not always progress at the pace required by the industry.
Price of Fat Cattle Enters Market Radar
Among cattle ranchers, the main point of attention is the fat cattle market, which may feel the effects of more cautious export production in the coming weeks.
When slaughterhouses reduce production aimed at export, the need to purchase animals for slaughter tends to decrease, weakening the competition for raw materials in livestock areas.
Industry analysts see a risk that the movement will not be restricted to JBS, as other exporting companies are also monitoring the progress of the Chinese quota.
In this environment, the industry’s caution may result in more comfortable slaughter schedules, less appetite for new purchases, and additional pressure on arroba negotiations.
This adjustment, however, does not mean an automatic and uniform drop in prices, because the market’s reaction depends on regional factors and the speed of adaptation of the slaughterhouses.
Animal supply, domestic demand, exchange rates, sales to other countries, and the ability to reorganize production are among the elements that can influence the behavior of the arroba.
Dependence on China Returns to the Center of Brazilian Livestock
The suspension of production by JBS reinforces Brazil’s dependence on China in the beef trade, a relationship that has begun to condition industrial and commercial decisions.
As the Asian country accounts for a significant portion of external sales, any change in rules, tariffs, qualifications, or purchasing pace causes rapid effects on the Brazilian production chain.
The Brazilian government reported that it is monitoring the issue and is working with the private sector and the Chinese government, including within the World Trade Organization.
According to the official statement, this coordination seeks to mitigate the impacts of the safeguard, which is applied by China to imports from all origins and does not combat unfair trade practices.
For producers, slaughterhouses, and exporters, the point of attention becomes the effective limit of the quota over the coming weeks and the pace of already contracted shipments.
As long as there is uncertainty about the available space for new shipments, the trend is for greater selectivity in shipments and closer monitoring of slaughter schedules.
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