Dangerous Fly And Historic Drought Drive Up U.S. Meat Prices To Highest Level In Decades

Written by Ruth Rodrigues

Published on 30/07/2025 at 09:33

Os EUA enfrentam aumento histórico no preço da carne bovina por causa da redução do rebanho e do risco da mosca mortal. Entenda o impacto no mercado.

Uma pessoa reagiu a isso.

The USA Faces Historic Increase In Beef Prices Due To Herd Decline And Deadly Fly Risk. Understand The Impact On The Market.

The price of beef in the USA reached record levels in 2025, driven by a concerning combination of factors. In addition to the historic decline of the cattle herd, the country now fears the arrival of a devastating plague: the deadly fly, which is already affecting Mexico.

The concern is that the plague may further exacerbate the cattle scarcity and increase prices, especially during barbecue season when consumption typically rises.

According to data from the U.S. government, the average price of 450 grams of ground beef reached US$ 6.12 in June — a jump of nearly 12% compared to the same period in 2024. The situation raises alarms for consumers, cattle ranchers, and economists.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Herd Decline And Pressure On Beef Prices

The USA recorded its lowest cattle herd in 74 years in January: 86.7 million head, representing a decline of 8% since 2019.

The reduction is a direct consequence of prolonged droughts, high feed costs, and excessive culling of females to maintain short-term production.

David Anderson, an economist at Texas A&M, explains: “It’s a balancing act, and so far the side that has won is the immediate sale.”

The choice to sell breeding cows to capitalize on high prices may compromise supply in the coming years.

Even if ranchers decide to replenish the herd, the complete cycle takes at least two years.

Deadly Fly Puts U.S. Livestock At Risk

The outbreak of the screwworm fly in Mexico has led the USA to suspend imports of cattle from the neighboring country.

The plague, whose larvae feed on living flesh, poses a direct threat to the American herd.

About 4% of the cattle slaughtered in the USA came from Mexico, and the interruption in imports increases pressure on domestic supply.

Bernt Nelson, an economist at the Farm Bureau, warns: “The loss of this volume of cattle is putting even more pressure on supply, contributing to rising prices.”

If the deadly fly reaches Texas, the losses could be in the billions, as previously occurred before its eradication in the USA decades ago.

Tariffs On Imported Beef Increase Tension

Another factor that threatens the sector’s balance is the tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s administration.

Although they have not yet caused a direct impact, the risk of tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian beef — a major supplier of lean cuts — could hinder the production of ground beef at the standard desired by American consumers.

Currently, the USA imports about 1.8 million tons per year, and much of this meat serves to balance the fat content of domestic production, which is aimed at marbled steaks.

Beef Prices In The USA Should Remain High

Even with a slight improvement in pastures and a decrease in grain prices, analysts like Glynn Tonsor from Kansas State University believe prices will remain high.

The arrival of autumn typically reduces beef prices, but this year the drop is expected to be modest.

Nelson concludes: “There are still many barriers to increasing this herd. A young farmer wanting to add 25 pregnant heifers needs to be prepared to spend over US$ 100,000.”

The combination of drought, high costs, health risks, and uncertainties in foreign trade turns the U.S. beef landscape into a major challenge — and the deadly fly could be the missing factor that makes everything even more unstable.

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Dangerous Fly And Historic Drought Drive Up U.S. Meat Prices To Highest Level In Decades

The USA Faces Historic Increase In Beef Prices Due To Herd Decline And Deadly Fly Risk. Understand The Impact On The Market.

Herd Decline And Pressure On Beef Prices

Deadly Fly Puts U.S. Livestock At Risk

Tariffs On Imported Beef Increase Tension

Beef Prices In The USA Should Remain High

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Dangerous Fly And Historic Drought Drive Up U.S. Meat Prices To Highest Level In Decades

The USA Faces Historic Increase In Beef Prices Due To Herd Decline And Deadly Fly Risk. Understand The Impact On The Market.

Herd Decline And Pressure On Beef Prices

Deadly Fly Puts U.S. Livestock At Risk

Tariffs On Imported Beef Increase Tension

Beef Prices In The USA Should Remain High

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While the U.S. still faces limitations in deep space, China is developing unprecedented technology with strategic satellites that maintain communication with the far side of the Moon and aims for dominance by 2030.

In Botswana, a salt flat of up to 16,000 km² that was once an African megalake spends months as an absolute white desert, but during the rainy season it transforms into a shallow sea that reappears from nowhere and can be seen from space in the middle of southern Africa.

The Blood Falls of Antarctica hide a living ecosystem trapped under the ice for over 2 million years, where microbes survive without light, without oxygen, and without ever having seen the Sun.

Bavarian archaeologists unearthed a medieval skeleton that had an articulated iron hand in place of its left arm, and the discovery reveals that doctors were already creating sophisticated prosthetics over 500 years ago.

For the first time, scientists have mapped the Etna magma system in almost real time and discovered where the volcano was storing large volumes of molten material before years of eruptions, revealing an underground reservoir that fills and reorganizes like a living organism beneath the mountain.

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