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Judgment on the Royalties Law reignites dispute between producing and non-producing states, amidst record oil and gas production recorded by ANP in 2025.
Moreover, Brazil is facing a decisive impasse over oil royalties. While the country breaks production records, it still debates how to transform this wealth into regional development, fiscal balance, and lasting social benefit.
According to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, in 2025, the national average oil production reached 3.77 million barrels per day. Additionally, oil and gas totaled 4.897 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, the highest historical mark in the country.
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Nevertheless, the advancement in production has not eliminated tensions over fuels, inflation, transport, logistics, and consumption. Therefore, the debate goes beyond Petrobras, exchange rates, and the international price of the barrel.
Now, the central discussion is on the allocation of wealth generated by oil. In this scenario, the judgment of royalties has returned to the spotlight in the Supreme Federal Court.
Additionally, the controversy involves Law No. 12,734 of 2012, which changed the criteria for the distribution of royalties and special participation. The law expanded the share allocated to non-producing states and municipalities.
On the other hand, producing states, such as Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, and São Paulo, contested the change in the Supreme Court. They argue that royalties have a compensatory nature, as these territories face economic, environmental, and infrastructure impacts.
Meanwhile, non-producing states and municipalities advocate for a broader distribution. After all, according to this view, natural resources linked to the Union should benefit more units of the federation.
However, the dispute was suspended for more than a decade. In 2013, Minister Cármen Lúcia granted an injunction that halted key points of the redistribution. Now, in May 2026, the case has returned to the Supreme Court plenary.
Moreover, the rapporteur voted for the unconstitutionality of the changes in Law No. 12,734/2012. After that, the judgment was again suspended after a request for review by Minister Flávio Dino.
Therefore, the uncertainty has already produced concrete effects. In Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, oil revenues have gained decisive weight in public accounts. Meanwhile, non-producers claim that the suspension preserved an excessive concentration of resources.
According to the ANP itself, royalties are financial compensations paid by producing companies to the Union, states, Federal District, and beneficiary municipalities. Additionally, they compensate society for the exploitation of non-renewable natural resources.
Thus, the problem remains open. After all, are royalties territorial compensation, federative revenue, a national development instrument, or a strategic savings for the future?
Meanwhile, the consumer remains exposed to international fluctuations in oil and exchange rates. Therefore, the Brazilian contradiction becomes even more evident: the country produces more but has not yet fully defined how to use this wealth.
Therefore, the Supreme Court’s decision will have a billion-dollar impact on public revenues. However, the reach goes beyond federative distribution. The dispute involves energy policy, fiscal balance, regional development, and the economic role of oil.
In the end, Brazil has already shown technical capacity to explore deep and ultra-deep waters. Now, however, it needs to build a model capable of transforming oil into stability, predictability, and legitimate social benefit. After all, how to use this wealth without further expanding the federative impasse?
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