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OPEC – Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in a report on Tuesday (14) that, for the year 2023, there will be a rise in global oil demand by 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
For the results of 2022, OPEC reiterated its estimate of increased global demand of 2.5 million barrels per day. OPEC expects that the demand from members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will grow by about 200,000 bpd this year. Outside the OECD, consumption is expected to increase by about 2.1 mb/d in 2023.
Price Outside the Group
OPEC maintained its forecast of a 1.4 million bpd increase in oil supply from countries outside the group in 2023, according to the monthly report. The countries that will contribute the most to the increase in supply in 2023 are the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guyana, OPEC said. On the other hand, Russia’s supply is expected to decrease.
For 2022, OPEC reiterated its estimate of a supply increase of 1.9 million barrels per day. In the report, OPEC also stated that its production in February increased by 117,000 bpd compared to January, averaging 28.92 million bpd, according to secondary sources.
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Petrobras buys 75% of Oranto and becomes the operator of block 3 in São Tomé and Príncipe, resuming its strategy in Africa to diversify its portfolio and replenish oil and gas reserves.
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China inaugurates a new era by signing a $5.1 billion project to expand one of the largest gas fields on the planet, adding 10 billion m³ per year and reinforcing an energy mechanism that already moves 30 billion m³ annually towards its market.
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While the world felt the pinch of rising oil prices, oil companies pocketed at least $23 billion extra from the crisis in Ormuz.
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Oil plummets more than 10% and the market turns upside down after Iran opens Hormuz and eases fears about the main route in the Gulf.
Gross Domestic Product Will Remain Growing
OPEC maintained its forecast of global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6% in 2023, according to a monthly document. For 2022, the cartel slightly raised its forecast for global GDP growth from 3.1% to 3.2%.
For this year, OPEC reiterated its growth forecasts of 1.2% for the U.S. and 0.8% for the Eurozone. Regarding China, the cartel continues to forecast a growth of 5.2% in 2023.
United Arab Emirates Will Not Leave OPEC, Despite Speculations
The United Arab Emirates announced that it has no plans to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Oil markets were shaken by concerns that the United Arab Emirates were in internal discussions about their withdrawal, a move that could free the country to increase production amid growing divergences with Saudi Arabia. The drop in commodity prices was triggered by a report from the Wall Street Journal.
The United Arab Emirates have openly and privately stated that they will comply with the OPEC agreement at least this year. The United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil producers, have been arguing for years which alliances would best serve their long-term interests while seeking to take advantage of their recently expanded production capacity.
What Is OPEC?
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