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GDP Growth Stands Out At 3.3%, While The Manufacturing Industry Suffers A 0.5% Drop.
In the current economic scenario, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) highlights an encouraging projection for Brazil’s GDP in 2023, pointing to a growth of 3.3%. However, while some sectors show strength, others face significant challenges.
Unraveling The Numbers Of The Industry
When analyzing the manufacturing industry, there is an expectation of a contraction of 0.5% for this year. This drop is largely influenced by decreasing demand and declining production, with a critical look at the sectors that heavily depend on credit. The scenario of high interest rates has proven to be an obstacle for these segments.
Robson Braga de Andrade, president of CNI, notes: “The industry, crucial for the robustness of Brazilian production and its continuous innovation, faces moments of contraction. Impacted by high interest rates and our tax system, its capacity for investment and growth is challenged.”
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Other industrial segments, however, show varying performances. There is an expectation of industrial GDP growth of 2% in 2023. The extractive industry, supported by the production of iron ore, oil, and coal, has an optimistic growth estimate of 6.7% this year. Additionally, the construction industry and public utility industrial services (SIUP) also indicate expansions of 1.5% and 5.3%, respectively.
Mário Sérgio Telles, executive manager of the Economy department, highlights: “Although part of the industry related to the external market performs well this year, the manufacturing industry is pressured by economic policies and demand challenges.”
Sectors In Highlight For 2023
The agricultural sector, with promising soybean and corn harvests, forecasts an impressive growth of 15.5% in 2023, even with the moderate global scenario. Meanwhile, the Services sector, a key player in economic growth in the first half, expects a revised growth of 2.1% for the year.
Brazil’s foreign trade also has encouraging news. CNI projects exports of US$ 331 billion, resulting in a record trade surplus of US$ 73.7 billion in 2023.
Economic Indicators In Focus
Inflation, monitored by the IPCA, is expected to close 2023 at 4.9%. Although it is a lower number than that recorded in 2022, it is still above the established target.
Finally, regarding the Selic rate, the scenario suggests a slowdown in inflation. With cuts expected by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the expectation is that the Selic rate will end 2023 at 11.75% per year.
Source: Journalism – CNI.
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