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Understand what motivated Petrobras' devaluation, how the OPEC+ decision affects the oil market and what to expect on the international scene
The OPEC+ decision, announced on May 5, 2025, to gradually increase oil production caused an immediate impact on the financial market. This had a direct impact on Petrobras shares, which reacted to expectations of greater global supply and possible pressure on commodity prices. According to Reuters, the cartel's move was interpreted as a sign of an attempt to stabilize production. Experts point out that the measure aims to restore balance between supply and demand, without abrupt measures.
Petrobras share performance after the announcement
With the repercussion of the announcement, Petrobras' preferred shares (PETR4) fell 3,73% and closed the day at R$29,66, according to B3. This was the lowest value recorded since July 2023, according to Folha de S.Paulo. At the same time, oil futures contracts also fell. The price of a barrel of Brent fell to US$60,23 and WTI fell to US$57,13, according to data from Bloomberg. These figures reflected global concern about the possibility of excess supply in a context of still weakened demand, especially in Asia and Europe.
OPEC+ decision details
OPEC+, made up of countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced that production will be increased by 411 barrels per day starting in June 2025. Adding the adjustments since April, the total should reach almost 1 million barrels per day by the end of June, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The objective, according to an official note, is to compensate for the failure to meet production targets by some members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. Additionally, Saudi Arabia announced that it may gradually reduce the voluntary cuts still in effect, if there is convergence in the targets. According to an analysis by Goldman Sachs, the move was interpreted as a coordinated strategy to normalize supply. Therefore, it is not an indiscriminate opening of production, but a progressive adjustment in light of market conditions.
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Direct impacts for Petrobras
The current scenario poses challenges for Petrobras. Even with a net profit of R$61,7 billion recorded in 2024, according to the balance sheet published in February 2025, the company depends on the price of oil to maintain consistent results. Analysts at XP Investimentos and BTG Pactual indicate that, although the impact is specific, it may influence policies such as dividend distribution.
The stability of the commodity will be a key factor in defining the future performance of the state-owned company. Economist Eric Gil Dantas, from Ibeps, emphasizes that the devaluation is not necessarily structural, but rather a short-term reaction. According to him, Petrobras' stock remains attractive, although subject to volatility in international markets.
International context contributes to instability
In addition to the OPEC+ decision, other global variables have put pressure on the energy market.
According to the IMF, the global growth forecast has been revised to 2,6% in 2025, which could reduce demand for oil. In addition, trade tensions between the United States and China have once again gained prominence, as reported by the Financial Times. At the same time, data from the European Central Bank indicate an economic slowdown in the eurozone, which is also putting pressure on prices. Therefore, even with an increase in supply, global consumption may not keep up with this pace, creating a scenario of temporary oversupply. Companies in the sector, such as Petrobras, must prepare for strategic adjustments, focusing on efficiency and diversification.
Outlook for the coming months
The upcoming OPEC+ meetings, scheduled for July and September 2025, should bring more clarity on the direction of production policy. In addition, the performance of the Chinese economy will be decisive for market balance, according to the Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce. In the United States, possible tariff measures or changes in energy policy could also affect the global scenario. Therefore, investors' attention should remain high in the coming quarters. Petrobras will release a new balance sheet in August 2025, and analysts expect data that will help measure the impact of oil fluctuations on the state-owned company's finances. Operational performance, pricing policy and export strategy will be aspects that will be monitored more closely.
