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With The Smallest Herd in Decades, Beef Prices Surge in The U.S. and Open Space for Record Exports from Brazil to The American Market
The beef has become the new item of concern for consumers in the United States. After eggs experienced a price increase earlier this year, now it’s ground beef and other popular cuts that are putting pressure on household budgets.
In May, ground beef reached the highest price ever recorded in the country: US$ 5.98 per pound, about R$ 32.34 for 454 grams.
This increase represents 16.2% more compared to the same month last year. From January to May 2025, the advance has already reached 7.3%. Other cuts also felt the pressure. Sirloin and chuck steaks rose 1.1% just in May.
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The majority of the beef consumed in the United States is destined for hamburger production. About 80% of the country’s beef serves this purpose.
With the direct impact on costs, major companies in the sector reacted. McDonald’s, Sysco, and other companies decided to sue the main meatpackers in the U.S. The lawsuits accuse the processors of conspiring to raise prices.
While the companies deny any wrongdoing, some lawsuits have already been settled with multi-million dollar agreements.
The amounts have not been officially disclosed, but the newspaper The New York Times reports that they reached into the tens of millions of dollars.
Smallest Herd in Decades
The explanation for the price increase lies in the limited supply. The number of beef cattle in the U.S. has fallen to 27.9 million, a reduction of 13% since 2019.
It’s the lowest number since the 1950s. The total number of cattle has also decreased, going from 92.6 million in 2021 to 86.6 million currently, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Analyst Fernando Iglesias from Safras & Mercado consultancy points to three main reasons: high costs, climatic difficulties at the beginning of the decade, and the decision by many ranchers to cull females. This has compromised the breeding capacity of the herds.
Another relevant factor was the drought that hit the western part of the country. With less available pasture, ranchers had to invest more in feed. Many chose to sell part of their cattle, further reducing the herd size.
In addition, the 2020 pandemic caused the closure of meatpacking plants and reduced demand for cattle, which also impacted the meat supply chain in the following years.
Slow Recovery
Even with soaring prices, rebuilding herds is a slow process. According to Iglesias, it takes two to three years for a calf to be ready for slaughter. This means that prices are likely to remain high at least until 2026.
The USDA itself confirms this projection. The expectation is that cattle prices will remain high in 2025, and retail beef prices will be under pressure for the next few years.
Brazil Gains Ground in The American Market
With internal scarcity, the United States has increased its purchases of beef from Brazil. According to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industry (Abiec), shipments to the American market grew 113% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. In total, 181,500 tons were exported.
The revenue generated was also substantial: US$ 1 billion, up 102%. The good results were achieved even with a slight decrease in the average price per ton.
According to Abiec, the larger volume compensated for the difference and ensured a record revenue for the sector.
Not even the tariffs imposed by American President Donald Trump affected these imports. The trade war with several countries, including Brazil, did not reduce the influx of Brazilian beef into the U.S.
Brazil May Maintain Leadership in 2026
The projection is that Brazil will continue to be the main supplier of beef to the U.S. next year. This assessment is shared by both Abiec and industry analysts.
For Roberto Perosa, the president of the entity, the scenario is clear. “The American cattle cycle is the smallest in the last 80 years, and the outlook is that this won’t change in the medium term. When there is no meat, it is necessary to seek from those who have it. And today the one who has it in the world is Brazil,” he states.
According to him, the country has three main advantages: production capacity, consistency in supply, and competitive prices.
This combination should ensure Brazil’s leadership in supplying beef to the United States in the coming years.
With information from Exame.
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