Intense rains in various regions boost reservoir volumes, but irregular distribution of precipitation still challenges water balance in different state basins
Ceará returned to the spotlight in the Brazilian climate scenario after registering, in April 2026, one of the best performances in water recharge of the last decade. Driven by significant rainfall in different municipalities, the month showed robust numbers, reinforcing the importance of the rainy season for the supply of state reservoirs.
The information was released by Diário do Nordeste based on the daily reviews of the Water Resources Management Company (Cogerh), indicating that the accumulated volume in the reservoirs reached an expressive 2.90 billion cubic meters in April alone.
April 2026 enters the historical ranking of water recharge in Ceará
This performance places April 2026 as the third best result for the month in the last 10 years. Ahead of it are only the years 2024, with 5.27 billion cubic meters, and 2023, with 3.25 billion m³.
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Furthermore, the result surpasses years considered positive, such as 2020 (1.92 billion m³) and 2022 (1.71 billion m³), highlighting the strength of recently recorded rainfall. On the other hand, the contrast is even more evident when compared to periods of severe drought, such as 2017 (0.4 billion m³) and 2021 (0.44 billion m³).
In this sense, the progress observed in 2026 reinforces the role of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the main meteorological system responsible for rainfall in the Northeast during the rainy season. The more consistent performance of this phenomenon throughout April was decisive for the good indices recorded.
Year-to-date accumulated rainfall reveals slight decrease and points to irregular rainfall
Despite the excellent performance in April, the accumulated rainfall between January and April 2026 showed a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2025. While in the previous year the total volume was 4.96 billion cubic meters, in 2026 the figure was 4.82 billion m³.
Although the difference is small, it reveals an important factor: the irregularity in the distribution of rainfall throughout the beginning of the rainy season. That is, even with a highly positive month, the climatic behavior throughout the year still shows instability.
This scenario had already been anticipated by the Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme), which indicated, at the beginning of 2026, a prognosis of uncertainty: 40% probability of rainfall within the average, 40% below, and only 20% above the historical average.
Reservoir levels exceed 50%, but reduction compared to 2025 draws attention
Even with these variations, Ceará maintains a relatively comfortable situation in terms of water storage. Data from the Ceará Hydrological Portal show that, as of April 30, 2026, the average volume of the 144 monitored reservoirs reached 50.24% of total capacity.
Still, the index is lower than that recorded in the same period of 2025, when the reservoirs were at 55.63% of volume.
Furthermore, there were important changes in the reservoir scenario:
- The number of overflowing reservoirs fell from 49 to 33
- Reservoirs with more than 90% capacity decreased from 14 to 13
- Meanwhile, reservoirs in critical condition (below 30%) increased from 23 to 27
Therefore, although the general scenario indicates water recovery, it also reveals slower progress when compared to the previous year.
Unequal water distribution exposes regions on alert in Ceará
Another crucial point is the inequality in water distribution among the hydrographic basins. While some regions operate with high levels, others face worrying conditions.
The basins with the best performance currently are:
- Coast: 95.76%
- Alto Jaguaribe: 95.82%
- Coreaú: 94.73%
These regions show high water security, with several reservoirs overflowing or close to maximum capacity.
Next, areas with intermediate, but still positive, levels appear:
- Acaraú: 83.83%
- Serra da Ibiapaba: 77.18%
- Salgado: 68.61%
- Curu: 57.67%
- Metropolitan: 52.19%
On the other hand, some basins remain in a delicate situation:
- Médio Jaguaribe: 29.05%
- Banabuiú: 30.23%
The most critical situation is in the Sertões de Crateús, with only 21.53% of capacity, directly affecting municipalities such as Quiterianópolis, Independência, and Novo Oriente.
In this context, the continuation of rains throughout May, the last month of the rainy season, will be decisive in improving or worsening these indicators.
Satellite monitoring promises more precision in water data
Seeking to improve water resource management, Cogerh signed a five-year partnership with the Ministry of Justice and Public Security (MJSP). The objective is to monitor reservoirs using daily satellite images.
According to the Company, the technology will allow for more precise monitoring of water levels, reducing inconsistencies and offering a more faithful picture of the State’s water reality.
This innovation represents an important advance, especially in a scenario of climate change and rainfall variability, where data precision is essential for strategic decision-making.

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