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With Increasing Defense Spending, Russia Faces Budget Pressure and Forecasts 15% Drop in Oil and Gas Revenue in 2025 Due to Price Decline.
Russia has revised down its expectations for revenue from oil and gas exports for the coming years, with a significant decline projected as early as 2025. According to a document from the Russian Ministry of Economy obtained by Reuters, the country estimates it will raise US$ 200.3 billion next year from these natural resources, a figure 15% lower than the US$ 235 billion recorded in 2024.
The change in estimates is directly linked to the depreciation of oil prices in the international market, putting additional pressure on the Russian state budget.
Revenue Forecast for Russia from Oil and Gas Until 2027
The new outlook drawn up by the Russian government predicts a gradual recovery of revenues over the following years.
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For 2026, the estimate is US$ 220.4 billion in revenue from oil and gas exports.
In 2027, that number is expected to rise to US$ 231 billion. Only in 2028 is the country expected to surpass the revenue levels recorded in 2024, with a projection of US$ 244.1 billion, according to the same document.
This scenario signals an adjustment of expectations from Moscow, which traditionally relies on hydrocarbon exports to finance about one-third of its federal budget.
Budget Pressure and Rising Military Spending
The reduction in projected revenues occurs at a delicate moment for Russia’s public finances.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the country has significantly increased its defense spending.
With less revenue coming from oil and gas, the Russian government faces the challenge of balancing its accounts amid an unstable geopolitical scenario and high military costs.
Gas Exports Expanding in Russia
Despite the decline in expectations regarding oil, the gas sector presents a more promising picture.
The Russian Ministry of Economy forecasts an increase in exports of this commodity: 89.1 billion cubic meters are expected to be sold in 2025, surpassing the 80.6 billion of 2024 and the 69.3 billion recorded in 2023.
The improvement in this segment could help partially mitigate the effects of the decline in total revenue, but it is still far from fully compensating for the losses incurred from the falling oil barrel value.
The document reveals that Russia is preparing for a prolonged scenario of uncertainties in the energy sector.
The fluctuation of international prices and sanctions imposed by Western countries continue to directly impact the country’s main source of revenue.
In this context, diversifying exports and strengthening partnerships with Asian markets emerge as possible strategies for the future.
