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The Civil Defense and Epagri/Ciram warned that the Super El Niño has an 80% chance of forming between July and August in Santa Catarina, which may extend until summer, and that the phenomenon drastically increases the risk of floods, landslides, winds, and hail.
Santa Catarina may be facing the most severe climatic scenario in recent years with the possible arrival of a Super El Niño that, according to projections published by the Civil Defense and the state Epagri/Ciram on Monday (20), has about an 80% chance of forming between July and August. The data supporting the forecast comes from the Climate Prediction Center, an international reference center for climate monitoring, and indicates that the phenomenon may extend throughout spring and into summer, precisely the periods that already record the highest rainfall volumes in Santa Catarina territory. If confirmed, the Super El Niño would intensify precipitation in months that historically already cause disasters, creating a dangerous overlap between the rainy season and the anomalous warming of the Pacific waters.
The concern is not abstract. Santa Catarina has a history of climate tragedies exacerbated by El Niño, with floods isolating entire municipalities, landslides burying houses on occupied slopes, and flash floods destroying bridges and roads in a matter of hours. If the 2026 phenomenon reaches the projected intensity, the state will need to deal simultaneously with heavy rains, severe storms with destructive winds, and the possibility of hail, a combination that directly endangers populations in regions with a history of climate disasters.
What makes this Super El Niño different from previous ones in Santa Catarina
The alert issued by Epagri/Ciram draws attention for its timeliness and high probability. An 80% chance of formation is a number that meteorologists consider practically a confirmation, and the fact that the warning was published months before the critical period indicates that state agencies are already treating the Super El Niño as a likely scenario and not just a possible one. In previous episodes, confirmation usually came later, leaving less time for preparation.
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The persistence of the phenomenon during the spring and summer months is the factor that multiplies the danger of floods and landslides. If the Super El Niño remains active from July until the beginning of 2027, Santa Catarina will face consecutive months of above-average rainfall, a condition that saturates the soil, raises river levels, and makes each new precipitation a potential trigger for floods and landslides. The soaked ground can no longer absorb water, and what would normally be a heavy rain turns into a torrent. Slopes that would withstand an isolated storm may give way after weeks of accumulated moisture.
The concrete risks that Super El Niño brings to Santa Catarina
The note from the Civil Defense and Epagri/Ciram lists the main dangers associated with the phenomenon: floods, inundations, landslides, severe storms with destructive winds, and hail precipitation. Each of these events individually already causes significant damage, but the characteristic of Super El Niño is that they tend to occur simultaneously or in rapid succession, preventing recovery between one episode and another. A municipality affected by flooding one day may suffer a landslide the following week, simply because the soil did not have time to dry.
The most vulnerable areas in Santa Catarina are well known. The valleys of the Itajaí, Tubarão, and Araranguá rivers concentrate populations living in zones of recurring floods, and urbanized slopes in cities like Blumenau, Joinville, and Florianópolis have already shown fragility in the face of landslides in previous events. The Super El Niño of 2026 will once again test the drainage infrastructure, alert systems, and response capacity of these municipalities, which despite the investments made after past tragedies still have irregular occupations in risk areas.
What Santa Catarina is doing to prepare for Super El Niño
State agencies have already begun coordinating preventive measures. The actions include intensifying real-time climate monitoring, reviewing risk reduction strategies, and logistical preparation to respond to occurrences in the months leading up to the most critical period of Super El Niño. The Civil Defense advises residents to stay alert to official communications and reinforce precautions, especially those living in areas with a recurring history of natural disasters.
Advance preparation is the main differential that Santa Catarina can have in this cycle. With three months between the alert and the expected formation of Super El Niño, there is time for municipalities to clean drainage channels, reinforce critical slopes, update evacuation plans, and inform the population which areas should be avoided in case of heavy rain. The challenge is to turn the available time into concrete action before the first extraordinary rains arrive, because once the phenomenon settles in, the prevention window closes and only emergency response remains.
What the population of Santa Catarina can do in the face of the Super El Niño threat
The responsibility does not fall solely on public agencies. Residents of risk areas in Santa Catarina should know the escape routes of their neighborhood, keep important documents in a water-protected location, and establish a family evacuation plan before Super El Niño begins to produce its effects. Following the bulletins from Civil Defense and Epagri/Ciram is essential, as alerts are issued hours in advance and can make the difference between leaving on time or getting trapped in a flood.
Experience from previous events shows that the greatest human losses occur when people underestimate warnings or refuse to leave their homes. The Super El Niño of 2026 could be the most intense to hit Santa Catarina in years, and the difference between tragedy and resilience will lie in the ability of the state, municipalities, and each family to treat the 80% alert as certainty and act before the first severe storm proves that the forecast was correct.
And you, do you live in Santa Catarina and are worried about Super El Niño? Have you experienced any flooding or landslides in previous weather events? Share your experience in the comments.
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