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Even With Rising Rents, Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 Study Indicates Stability in Sales Prices in São Paulo, Highlighting Bubble Risk and Greater Security for Buyers
Even with rents putting pressure on the budget of those living in São Paulo, SP, a new snapshot of the real estate market brings a less intuitive reading. The São Paulo capital appears as the safest city in the world for purchasing real estate, according to the Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 report, prepared by the Swiss bank UBS. The survey evaluated 21 global metropolises from the perspective of bubble formation risk.
Stability That Catches Attention
The study explains that a real estate bubble is characterized by the accelerated rise in property prices disconnected from average income growth.
This disconnect, when accompanied by a decline in demand, usually results in sharp falls and potential financial crises.
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According to UBS’s analysis in the Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025, São Paulo behaves differently.
Between 2014 and 2022, prices recorded a 25% decline. Since then, values have remained stagnant, indicating controlled variation.
“Inflation has slowed, but the Central Bank of Brazil has not yet signaled interest rate cuts. As long as high financing rates penalize leverage, significant price gains are unlikely,” points out the UBS report.
The reading suggests that the current scenario reduces the chances of abrupt fluctuations, reinforcing the perception of safety for buyers.
This constancy, in practice, decreases the risk of a purchase losing value quickly. For those seeking predictability in a long-term investment, this data carries weight.
Rising Rents and Global Alert
While sales prices remain stable, the same cannot be said for rents. The document highlights that real rents have risen by 5% in the last year and are approximately 25% above 2022 levels.
The movement reflects strong tenant demand and low vacancy rates in well-located areas.
In addition to São Paulo, the index cites Milan, Paris, and New York just behind as markets with the lowest risk for purchase. At the opposite extreme, Miami, Tokyo, Zurich, and Los Angeles lead as the most risky.
“In the last 15 years, Miami registered the highest inflation-adjusted real estate appreciation among all analyzed cities,” states the Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025.
The current price-to-rent ratio has even exceeded the extremes of 2006, signaling a high risk of bubble.
Although the contrast between safe purchases and expensive rents seems contradictory, the report suggests that these are distinct phenomena.
In the case of São Paulo, the stability of sales prices and rent pressure coexist in the same scenario, painting a complex and evolving market.
With information from Casa e Jardim.
