Soy: Argentina Eliminates Export Taxes And Threatens Billions In Sales From Brazil To China

Written by Noel Budeguer

Published on 22/09/2025 at 19:00

Updated on 22/09/2025 at 21:31

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Argentina Eliminated Export Taxes on Soybeans Until October 31, Lowering Prices and Threatening Brazil’s Competitiveness in China, Driving Down Prices in Chicago and Pressuring Producers

The Argentine government’s decision to temporarily eliminate taxes on grain and derivative exports is already beginning to resonate in the international market.

The measure, announced this Monday (22) and valid until October 31, is expected to significantly reduce the costs of Argentine soybeans, threatening Brazilian competitiveness in sales to China.

According to the consultancy Markestrat, the change alters the balance of power in global trade. In recent months, Brazilian soybeans have been gaining ground in the Chinese market, partly due to the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

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Between June 2025 and the second week of September, 567 Brazilian shipments were purchased under the CFR model, a number close to last year’s (569). During the same period, Brazil shipped 455 shipments, 25.7% more than in 2024, while Argentina increased from 39 to 112 shipments, a jump of 187%.

Argentina Releases 20 Million Tons of Soybeans with Zero Taxes, Lowering Prices by Up to 60 Cents per Bushel and Threatening Brazilian Exports to China

The new policy further strengthens Argentina’s position, especially since China still needs to purchase around 13 million tons of soybeans between November 2025 and January 2026. Argentina, with a stockpile of 20 million tons from the last crop, is expected to seize the moment to advance.

“With this scenario, the Argentine producer will sell a lot of soybeans within the month of October, putting even more meal and oil on the market,” says José Carlos de Lima, partner at Markestrat Group.

Economic Impact and Political Pressure

According to Lima, although Brazilian soybeans offer better returns, Argentine soybeans are currently about 60 cents per bushel cheaper.

He explains that the measure meets an internal need: “This is a scenario where the Milei government felt pressured by its opponents, due to the reduction of dollar reserves, with this measure aiming to bring in about USD 7 billion in new reserves.”

The initiative, therefore, is not just commercial, but also political and economic. By temporarily giving up the revenue from the so-called retenciones, the government seeks to attract foreign currency at a delicate moment for the country’s external accounts.

Immediate Reaction in International Prices

The effects were almost instantaneous. Near the close of trading on Monday, the main futures contracts in Chicago registered widespread declines.

The November soybean contract fell 1.50%, priced at US$ 10.09 per bushel. The December corn price dropped 0.68%, to US$ 4.20 per bushel, while wheat decreased by 1.99%, closing at US$ 5.10 per bushel.

Among the derivatives, the December soybean meal fell 1.36%, priced at US$ 2.80 per short ton, and soybean oil dropped 1.79%, to 4.97 cents per pound.

Markestrat’s specialist summarizes: “This scenario is very negative for Brazilian old crop premiums and for the futures of soybeans, meal, and corn in Chicago.”

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Soy: Argentina Eliminates Export Taxes And Threatens Billions In Sales From Brazil To China

Argentina Eliminated Export Taxes on Soybeans Until October 31, Lowering Prices and Threatening Brazil’s Competitiveness in China, Driving Down Prices in Chicago and Pressuring Producers

Economic Impact and Political Pressure

Immediate Reaction in International Prices

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Soy: Argentina Eliminates Export Taxes And Threatens Billions In Sales From Brazil To China

Argentina Eliminated Export Taxes on Soybeans Until October 31, Lowering Prices and Threatening Brazil’s Competitiveness in China, Driving Down Prices in Chicago and Pressuring Producers

Economic Impact and Political Pressure

Immediate Reaction in International Prices

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