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Understand How the Exemption of Key Products in the US Tariff Relieved the Impact on the Overall Economy, but Concentrated the Threat on Thousands of Jobs in Specific Sectors.
President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a hefty tariff on Brazilian products will have a smaller impact than expected on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The exemption of hundreds of items changed the macroeconomic landscape. However, the measure still poses a serious threat to the job market, with estimates pointing to the loss of up to 140,000 jobs.
Exemptions of Key Products Relieve the Effect on the Brazilian Economy
Analysts revised their projections after the release of the list of exempt products. With the exemption of 694 exported items, including orange juice, oil, and airplanes, the projected negative impact on GDP for 2025 has been reduced and now stands between 0.13% and 0.6%. For these products, the tariff has been maintained at 10%, relieving the pressure on the Brazilian economy in general.
Projections Indicate Risk for 140 Thousand Job Positions in the Country
Despite the relief in GDP, the main concern is the social impact. The Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg) estimates that the new tariffs could lead to the loss of 140,000 direct and indirect jobs in Brazil. The entity’s study also projects a possible drop of R$ 31.1 billion in the household income of Brazilian workers.
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The neighboring country of Brazil that reduced the working hours and increased the minimum wage by 23.7% had to hire 787,000 extra workers to cover the reduced hours, and even so, it records unemployment at a historic low.
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A resident of Guangzhou infiltrated the village where the 500 factories that make Shein’s clothes are located, disguised, and filmed everything: shifts from 8 am to 10 pm, factories operating at night, and owners who accept any conditions to avoid losing the contract.
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Traffic jammed between BH and Nova Lima may get significant relief with the Viaduto Ferradura, a R$ 48 million project that promises to connect MG-30 and MGC-356 without passing through the Belvedere junction.
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After Russia turned off the tap, Europe looks to Africa as a new energy salvation: two giant pipelines of up to 7,000 km may cross the Sahara and the Atlantic, costing $25 billion and transforming Nigerian gas into a geopolitical weapon.
Industrial and Agricultural Sectors Are the Most Affected by Trump’s Measures
The impact of Trump’s hefty tariff will be felt more severely by specific sectors. The steel, footwear, wood products, machinery, and agricultural industries are among the most exposed. The government estimates that of the total exported to the US, US$ 14.5 billion (35.9%) will be subject to the new 50% tariff.
Decline in Exports and the Future of the Trade Balance with the US
The direct consequence of the tariff is the reduction of Brazilian sales. Market estimates indicate that Brazil’s exports to the US could suffer a drop of up to US$ 4 billion. There is, however, an expectation that some of these losses may be mitigated, as calculations suggest that approximately 74% of the affected export volume could be redirected to other countries.
Trump, vai t n c.
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