Trump's Tariff: Why Relief in GDP Doesn't Stop Being a Threat to 140,000 Jobs in Brazil?

Trump’s Tariff: Why Relief in GDP Doesn’t Stop Being a Threat to 140,000 Jobs in Brazil?

Written by Carla Teles

Published on 11/08/2025 at 17:49

Entenda como o tarifaço de Trump poupa o PIB do Brasil, mas ainda ameaça 140 mil empregos. Saiba quais setores são mais afetados pela nova sobretaxa dos EUA.

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Understand How the Exemption of Key Products in the US Tariff Relieved the Impact on the Overall Economy, but Concentrated the Threat on Thousands of Jobs in Specific Sectors.

President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a hefty tariff on Brazilian products will have a smaller impact than expected on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The exemption of hundreds of items changed the macroeconomic landscape. However, the measure still poses a serious threat to the job market, with estimates pointing to the loss of up to 140,000 jobs.

Exemptions of Key Products Relieve the Effect on the Brazilian Economy

Analysts revised their projections after the release of the list of exempt products. With the exemption of 694 exported items, including orange juice, oil, and airplanes, the projected negative impact on GDP for 2025 has been reduced and now stands between 0.13% and 0.6%. For these products, the tariff has been maintained at 10%, relieving the pressure on the Brazilian economy in general.

Projections Indicate Risk for 140 Thousand Job Positions in the Country

Despite the relief in GDP, the main concern is the social impact. The Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg) estimates that the new tariffs could lead to the loss of 140,000 direct and indirect jobs in Brazil. The entity’s study also projects a possible drop of R$ 31.1 billion in the household income of Brazilian workers.

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Industrial and Agricultural Sectors Are the Most Affected by Trump’s Measures

The impact of Trump’s hefty tariff will be felt more severely by specific sectors. The steel, footwear, wood products, machinery, and agricultural industries are among the most exposed. The government estimates that of the total exported to the US, US$ 14.5 billion (35.9%) will be subject to the new 50% tariff.

Decline in Exports and the Future of the Trade Balance with the US

The direct consequence of the tariff is the reduction of Brazilian sales. Market estimates indicate that Brazil’s exports to the US could suffer a drop of up to US$ 4 billion. There is, however, an expectation that some of these losses may be mitigated, as calculations suggest that approximately 74% of the affected export volume could be redirected to other countries.

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Eduardo

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11/08/2025 19:30

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Trump’s Tariff: Why Relief in GDP Doesn’t Stop Being a Threat to 140,000 Jobs in Brazil?

Understand How the Exemption of Key Products in the US Tariff Relieved the Impact on the Overall Economy, but Concentrated the Threat on Thousands of Jobs in Specific Sectors.

Exemptions of Key Products Relieve the Effect on the Brazilian Economy

Projections Indicate Risk for 140 Thousand Job Positions in the Country

Industrial and Agricultural Sectors Are the Most Affected by Trump’s Measures

Decline in Exports and the Future of the Trade Balance with the US

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Trump’s Tariff: Why Relief in GDP Doesn’t Stop Being a Threat to 140,000 Jobs in Brazil?

Understand How the Exemption of Key Products in the US Tariff Relieved the Impact on the Overall Economy, but Concentrated the Threat on Thousands of Jobs in Specific Sectors.

Exemptions of Key Products Relieve the Effect on the Brazilian Economy

Projections Indicate Risk for 140 Thousand Job Positions in the Country

Industrial and Agricultural Sectors Are the Most Affected by Trump’s Measures

Decline in Exports and the Future of the Trade Balance with the US

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