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But it is not just its ‘volatile’ nature that inhibits the advancement of crypto assets. The fierce competition for capital aiming at the launch of IPOs or initial public offerings is also gaining the preference of investors, who are more risk-averse. As a result, Bitcoin has suffered a cumulative drop of 40% in the last 12 months
Capital migration to stocks and technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI); record redemptions in spot Bitcoin ETFs; sales by large corporate investors, coupled with regulatory uncertainties in the US and global geopolitical uncertainties.
The adverse combination of these factors, followed by the surge in global risk aversion, is pointed out by experts as a determinant of the consistent downfall of Bitcoin since last year, which has resulted in a cumulative devaluation of up to 40% over a 12-month period, as it plummeted from the level of $105,788 in June 2025 to $63,500.
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Bitcoin accumulates losses of 27% in 2026
Buffeted by ‘weak inflows’ and the redirection of retail investors to artificial intelligence stocks, Bitcoin suffers losses of up to 27% so far in 2026, even though analysts from the investment bank Bernstein maintain that an ‘institutional stability’ is underway, rather than a structural decline.
Optimistic projections aside, the fact is that net inflows of exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers ‘plummeted’ from an amount of $60 billion last year to a year-to-date total of only $12 billion, which corresponds to a drop of 80%.
This past Tuesday (9), the world’s leading cryptocurrency fell to $62,715 (R$ 325,421), despite the positive bias shown by global stock markets and the decline in oil prices. In contrast, while the macro picture is relatively relieved, on-chain data and Bitcoin ETF flow reinforce a perception of pessimism. According to analysts at Bitfinex, after showing an accumulation phase – with an upward bias until the beginning of this year – the crypto market began to exhibit a ‘distribution regime.’
After the ‘Cumulative Volume Delta’ indicator turned negative and following a strong accumulation period (especially in the months of April and May), buyers began to dispose of their positions. At the same time, it was observed that the average cost of short-term holders fell below the actual market average ($77,800), indicating that new investors are incurring losses and showing greater resistance to each recovery.
Race for IPOs is a strong competitor to crypto assets
With a similar view, the head of research at Anchorage Digital, David Lawant, assesses that the declining trajectory of bitcoin also results from external variables, such as the fierce competition for capital that enables IPOs (Initial Public Offering) by companies.
An IPO is the instrument by which a private company starts selling its shares on the stock exchange for the first time, in Brazil’s case, the B3 (B3SA3). The goal here is to raise financial resources, aiming to finance expansion projects, pay off debts, invest in new technologies, and acquire companies.
As examples of recent IPOs, Lawant cites the offering by SpaceX and other companies directly or indirectly linked to the artificial intelligence thesis, a movement he points to as responsible for ‘draining’ liquidity from different asset classes, including the crypto world.
‘Theme rotation’ marks the current scenario
Another thesis defended by the head of Anchorage Digital is that the market is experiencing what he called ‘theme rotation,’ where prices are influenced by a range of factors, from geopolitics to trade or monetary policy, inflation, or economic growth.
Recalling that cryptocurrencies have already faced similar adverse movements, the regional director of Coinbase for the Americas, Fábio Plein, explains that “consolidation periods can create space for the ecosystem to mature, while developers continue to create products and services that expand the utility of this technology.”
Regarding the short term, the VP of crypto business at Mercado Bitcoin (MB), Fabrício Tota, recommends ‘caution’ to investors, as the flows of ETFs, the behavior of companies holding the assets in the long term, and the evolution of the geopolitical scenario are factors that should continue to influence quotations.
Factors weighing on Bitcoin’s ‘low tide’
Capital Rotation to AI and Tech: the frenzy around Artificial Intelligence and semiconductor companies has attracted significant investment volumes. With the Nasdaq on a strong rise, many investors have preferred the safety and traditional profits of giants like Nvidia to high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Capital outflow from ETFs: spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which were major drivers of the asset’s appreciation, have recorded long sequences of negative net redemptions, reducing institutional demand.
Institutional sales: market confidence was shaken after Strategy (known for its strict accumulation policy) and other “whales” sold Bitcoin to cover dividends or corporate obligations.
Regulatory uncertainty: the expectation surrounding regulatory frameworks in the US — such as the stagnation of the progress of the Clarity Act — has created an environment of uncertainty that deters institutional investors who require more legal security.
Geopolitical tensions: conflicts in the Middle East have impacted oil prices and inflation expectations, causing global investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.
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