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Recent signs of the Argentine economy reignite the debate about Javier Milei, with data on activity, inflation, exchange rate, country risk, and dollar deposits being used by Fernando Ulrich to assess whether the country is experiencing real stabilization or just temporary relief.
The Argentine economy entered 2026 with signs of stabilization in some indicators, after years of high inflation, fiscal imbalance, and exchange rate instability.
Economic activity resumed growth, monthly inflation slowed down, country risk decreased, and foreign trade began to contribute to the inflow of dollars into the country.
In a video published on Fernando Ulrich’s YouTube channel, Fernando Ulrich, the economist and financial analyst stated that these data indicate improvement in part of the economic scenario, but in his assessment, do not mean that Argentina’s problems are solved.
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“Some will already comment that Milei increased poverty and is destroying the country’s economy, which is not true. Others might say that everything is going wonderfully, which is also not the reality,” said Fernando Ulrich when presenting his assessment.
In Ulrich’s analysis, the central point is to observe the indicators with caution and without definitive conclusions.
According to him, the Argentine economic program shows progress in specific areas but still faces risks in the exchange rate, international reserves, annual inflation, and the need to maintain fiscal adjustment.
Argentine economy returns to growth and reaches historical high
One of the main data cited by Fernando Ulrich was the performance of economic activity, used by him as evidence of short-term recovery.
In March 2026, the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator, an indicator used as a preview of the Argentine GDP, rose 3.5% compared to February and advanced 5.5% compared to March 2025.
The result led the series to a new maximum level, according to data released by Indec and monitored by Argentine market analysts.
“Argentina’s GDP recorded the historical high. The economic activity indicator, with seasonal adjustment, reached the highest level of the entire series, even above the recent peaks of 2025 and 2022,” stated Fernando Ulrich in the video.
The increase was driven by sectors such as agriculture, industry, mining, and energy, according to the reading presented by Ulrich from the available economic data.
Part of the monthly advance, however, reflected the weaker base of February, when activity had declined, which requires monitoring of future results to assess the consistency of the recovery.
According to Ulrich, the improvement in production should not be analyzed in isolation, because it is also associated with the recovery of Argentine financial assets, lower exchange rate volatility, and the decline in perceived risk by investors.
In the economist’s assessment, this set of indicators helps explain why part of the market has begun to show less distrust towards Argentina.
Inflation in Argentina slows down, but remains high
Inflation also showed a slowdown in the data cited by Fernando Ulrich, although the annual level remains high by international standards.
In April 2026, consumer prices rose 2.6%, below the 3.4% recorded in March, while the accumulated inflation over 12 months stood at 32.4%.
This annual level remains high but is below the peaks observed after Javier Milei took office, a period when the release of repressed prices caused a strong acceleration in the indices.
“Inflation fell back below 3% and recorded 2.6% for the month. In the annual reading, it is still at 32.4%, which is a high level but far from the peak seen after the price release,” said Ulrich.
As the economist explained, the current inflation still reflects part of the monetary expansion accumulated in previous periods.
In his assessment, the future trajectory of prices depends not only on the inflation already measured but also on the behavior of the monetary base and M2, an aggregate that includes money in circulation and bank deposits.
“The inflation we see today in Argentina is the result of past money printing. If now the money is stabilizing and M2 grows much less, the trend in the rate of price increase is downward,” he stated.
The relationship between money and prices was treated by Ulrich as a central point of the analysis, especially because the country has lived for years with high monetary expansion.
According to the economist, when the money supply starts to grow at a slower pace, the pressure on prices tends to decrease with a lag, provided that the demand for money does not deteriorate.
This effect, however, is not immediate and depends on the continuity of monetary policy.
For inflation to decline more consistently, the stabilization of monetary aggregates needs to be maintained for several months, according to the interpretation presented by Fernando Ulrich.
Exchange Rate and Country Risk Indicate Lower Investor Distrust
Another indicator mentioned by Ulrich was the behavior of the exchange rate, which underwent a strong adjustment at the beginning of Milei’s government.
After the devaluation promoted to bring the official rate closer to market reality, the Argentine peso entered a period of lower volatility compared to previous phases.
According to Ulrich, the exchange rate has remained relatively stable in recent months, especially when observed in relation to Argentina’s historical currency crises.
“The exchange rate is relatively stable, especially considering Argentina’s historical standards. Since Milei took office, there has been permission for the exchange rate to reflect reality,” commented Fernando Ulrich.
The perception of risk also declined in the analyzed period. In May 2026, Argentina’s country risk fell to the range of 498 basis points, after having exceeded 1,400 points in September 2025, amid political uncertainties and doubts about the approval of reforms.
Despite the decline, Argentina still presents a higher risk than more stable economies in the region, indicating that financial normalization remains incomplete.
The Argentine government itself signaled that it does not intend to return immediately to the international debt market and prefers to wait for conditions considered more favorable.
The rebuilding of international reserves remains one of the main points of attention, as it affects the country’s ability to sustain exchange rate policy, honor external commitments, and reduce dependence on emergency measures.
Argentine Foreign Trade Strengthens Dollar Inflow
The trade balance was also cited by Fernando Ulrich as a favorable factor for Javier Milei’s economic program.
In April 2026, Argentina recorded a trade surplus of about US$ 2.7 billion, with exports close to US$ 8.9 billion and growth compared to the same month of the previous year.
“Since the Milei government began, import volumes have grown 45%, and the trade surplus is at its highest since 2009, driven by agriculture, energy, and mining,” stated Ulrich.
The advancement of foreign trade is relevant because it increases the inflow of dollars and can help Argentina rebuild international reserves, one of the main challenges of the economic program.
The country needs to strengthen its foreign currency position to reduce exchange rate vulnerability, fulfill external commitments, and sustain the withdrawal of controls adopted in previous governments.
According to Fernando Ulrich, this is one of the decisive points of stabilization. The economist recalled that Milei took on new commitments with the International Monetary Fund to support the currency transition and, therefore, needs to strengthen the foreign currency reserves.
“Milei has the objective and duty to increase reserves because he assumed a larger external debt as a counterpart to the International Monetary Fund to stabilize the exchange rate and release exchange controls,” he said.
Dollar deposits show greater confidence of Argentinians
The data that Fernando Ulrich classified as most relevant to measure internal confidence was the increase in dollar deposits in the Argentine banking system.
In Argentina, unlike Brazil, citizens can maintain accounts in foreign currency within the country itself, which makes this indicator important for assessing the population’s risk perception.
“The more Argentinians are willing to keep their balances in dollars in the country, the more it signifies confidence that the program is sustainable and that there will not be a major devaluation or confiscation,” he stated.
The memory of the “corralito,” as the restriction on bank withdrawals in 2001 became known, still influences Argentinians’ relationship with the financial system.
For this reason, the return of dollars to local banks may indicate, according to analysts, less fear of extreme measures and greater institutional confidence.
According to Ulrich, the share of dollar deposits in the monetary aggregate has risen again and approached levels observed during Mauricio Macri’s government.
In his assessment, this behavior suggests that part of the Argentinians has started to trust more in the continuity of the stabilization plan.
“This means citizen confidence that there will be no confiscation, that the economy is stabilizing, and that the economic program is sustainable. Milei is managing to stabilize Argentina, but the work is not yet complete,” he concluded.
The reading of recent data, according to the assessment presented by Fernando Ulrich, does not support the thesis of an immediate collapse of the Argentine economy under Javier Milei.
At the same time, the indicators also do not allow for the assertion that the country’s historical crisis has been overcome, as improvement depends on factors still in development.
The economic framework shows advances in activity, monthly inflation, country risk, foreign trade, and banking confidence.
For analysts, the continuity of this process will depend on the persistent decline in inflation, the recomposition of reserves, exchange rate stability, and the maintenance of economic reforms.
Argentina shows signs of stabilization in some relevant indicators but still faces structural challenges related to income, poverty, regulatory predictability, and the confidence of companies, workers, and investors.
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