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Despite the Accumulated 17% Drop in Oil Prices, the Pass-Through to Fuel Stations in Brazil Is Still Not Immediate. Factors Such as the Dollar Exchange Rate, State Taxes, Petrobras Policies, and Profit Margins of Distributors and Resellers Directly Influence the Speed and Size of the Reduction for the Consumer
Since the beginning of the year, international prices have been registering significant declines. The Brent crude oil, a global benchmark used by Petrobras, has already accumulated a 17% drop. The expectation of further declines concerns the market.
The American bank Goldman Sachs projects that Brent prices could fall to US$ 40 in 2026. Currently, the barrel of oil is trading around US$ 64. This downward trend has generated apprehension among investors, companies in the sector, and governments.
Impact of US Tariffs
One of the main factors for this scenario is the tariff policy of U.S. President Donald Trump. The increase in tariffs directly impacts several production chains, such as the automotive and pharmaceutical industries, as well as affecting exports from countries like Brazil.
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According to Ian Lopes, a specialist at Valor Investimentos, tariffs lead to a forecast of recession and global economic slowdown. “With the escalation of tariffs, markets are predicting recession and a slowdown of the global economy. Consumption declines and this forces oil prices down,” he stated.
The United States and China together represent 40% of the world’s GDP. They are also the two largest oil consumers on the planet.
Bruno Cordeiro Santos, an analyst at Stone X, explains that a trade conflict between these two countries causes a fall in consumption expectations by refineries, driving prices down.
Oil Barrel: Accelerated Drop Since April
The price of oil is based on a 12-month forecast. Brent started the year at US$ 75.93. It rose to US$ 78.70 at Trump’s inauguration on January 20. However, it plummeted after the announcement of tariffs on April 2.
The next day, April 3, the price fell to US$ 65.58. The lowest value was on April 7, at US$ 62.82. Currently, it is at US$ 64.67.
Stations Have Not Passed On The Drop
Even with this drop in the international market, stations in Brazil have not yet reflected this change. This is because, since 2023, Petrobras no longer follows the parity with the international market.
The current policy also considers national production and the dollar exchange rate. For this reason, prices take longer to fluctuate at the pumps. Today, gasoline and diesel are between 4% and 8% above the international value, according to Itaú BBA.
Petrobras President Magda Chambriard stated that a price drop is being discussed internally. She recommended caution and said that the company is analyzing the scenario before making any decisions.
The last adjustment occurred on April 1, solely for diesel. Gasoline has not increased since July 8 of last year, when it rose R$ 0.20 per liter.
More Drop in the Price of the Oil Barrel in Sight?
According to Goldman Sachs, if there is a global slowdown and a reversal of OPEC+ production cuts, Brent prices could fall to US$ 40 in 2026, or even lower in an extreme scenario.
OPEC+ has been limiting production to keep prices high. But in April, it announced an increase of 411,000 barrels a day starting in May. The measure surprised the market.
For Ilan Arbetman, an analyst at Ativa Investimentos, the impact was direct. “With the implementation of tariffs and the faster restoration of supply by OPEC, we saw prices accelerating the negative momentum,” he stated.
OPEC Forecast Also Drops
This week, OPEC reduced its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 10%. The estimate fell from 1.45 million barrels per day to 1.3 million.
According to the report, “The global economy showed a trend of steady growth at the beginning of the year, but recent trade dynamics have introduced greater uncertainty for the short-term global economic growth outlook.”
The shares of oil companies also reflect this negative scenario. Brava (BRAV3), a merger of 3R Petroleum with Enauta, leads the losses with a 26.74% drop.
PetroReconcavo saw a drop of 16.72%. Meanwhile, Petrobras shares fell 13.75% (PETR3) and 12.32% (PETR4). PetroRio (PRIO3) dropped 15.77%.
These data were collected by Economatica, considering the period between January 2 and April 14. The sector as a whole feels the effects of falling oil prices and economic uncertainties.
The forecast of oil dropping to US$ 40 by 2026, made by one of the world’s largest banks, signals a period of significant adjustments for the energy industry. The upcoming decisions by OPEC+ and the unfolding of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China will be decisive for the market’s direction in the coming months.
With information from Economia.uol
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