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The blockade on Iran removed 20% of global oil from circulation and 70 supertankers sail to the US with record exports of 5 million barrels per day, while governments including NATO allies rush to China to import clean energy as an alternative to fossil fuel dependence.
The naval blockade imposed by the US on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz removed about 20% of the global daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas from circulation, a crisis that redirected world demand to American ports and put 70 supertankers on their way to the United States coast at the same time. American crude oil exports jumped to 5 million barrels per day in April, a 25% increase compared to the average of 4 million recorded the previous year, and May already points to a new record as supertankers queue at terminals in Louisiana and Texas. President Trump called the blockade an achievement and an opportunity for the American fossil fuel industry, but the rising global oil prices also affect domestic consumers, who pay significantly more for fuel.
The other side of the crisis is equally transformative. Governments that previously depended on Persian Gulf or Russian oil now realize that their economies are in the hands of foreign suppliers vulnerable to military conflicts, and the long-term answer in clean energy has one address: Beijing. China holds more than 90% of the world’s production capacity for solar modules, photovoltaic cells, wafers, and polysilicon, in addition to dominating the manufacturing of rare earth magnets used in wind turbines. Even NATO countries, including Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, Finland, and Ireland, are sending delegations to Beijing to negotiate imports of clean technology that reduce exposure to oil shocks like the one the world is experiencing now.
What the 70 supertankers sailing to the US mean for the global market
In the year prior to the conflict, an average of 27 supertankers per month loaded crude oil at American ports. The jump to 70 large vessels simultaneously en route to US terminals translates the scale of the redirection: with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, tankers that normally refuel in the Persian Gulf now cross half the world to seek supplies in North America, raising American exports to unprecedented levels. The 5 million barrels per day exported in April exceed last year’s 4 million volume by 25%, and the supertankers arriving in May indicate that the record will be broken again.
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While China develops giant batteries and magnetic levitation trains, Brazil still hasn’t managed to get the bullet train between São Paulo and Rio off the ground, and now receives R$ 4 billion from Germany for an energy transition that the specialist says is behind schedule in its execution.
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The US renews the license for the 759-megawatt Robinson nuclear power plant for another 20 years, until 2050, ensuring energy for 570,000 homes, nearly 500 jobs, and reinforcing Duke Energy’s plan to extend its 11 nuclear units.
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New driver’s license in RS becomes up to 76% cheaper and almost doubles approvals, but students of independent instructors face queues, few cities with tests, and a wait of almost a month to schedule the practical exam.
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While the Brazilian government is still discussing whether or not to create a state-owned company for rare earths, a Canadian company has already signed agreements to acquire two giant projects in the Northeast with potential for deposits that China dominates and the whole world disputes.
But record exports do not solve the structural problem. The US produces about 13 million barrels per day, but most of that production is already under contract, and seaports operate at maximum capacity with no possibility of loading faster or more volume than they already do. Furthermore, the United States is not self-sufficient: it imported 6.2 million barrels per day last year, mainly from Mexico and Canada, because American refineries require specific types of heavy crude oil that domestic production does not supply. Supertankers export, but the numbers don’t add up without imports.
How the blockade on Iran affected countries dependent on imported energy
The 2 million barrels per day that Iran supplied to China were theoretically interrupted by the naval blockade. Added to the other flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure removed 20% of the world’s oil and LNG demand from the circuit, forcing each importing country to seek more expensive and more distant alternatives while American supertankers cannot fill the entire gap. Oil prices soared, diesel and jet fuel markets became scarce even in the US, and airlines are raising fares and grounding aircraft due to lack of fuel.
Two Asian cases illustrate opposite responses to the crisis. Bangladesh, which had signed LNG contracts with Qatar, saw these agreements annulled by force majeure due to the war, and now needs to buy gas on the spot market at double the price of two months ago, reducing working hours and public spending to balance the energy situation. Pakistan, on the other hand, has invested heavily in Chinese solar clean energy over the past three years and reduced its reliance on imported fossil fuels from one-third to one-quarter of consumption, accumulating 36 gigawatts of solar capacity by mid-last year. For many Pakistani families, this transition meant uninterrupted power for the first time.
Why China is the only viable supplier of clean technology at scale
Chinese dominance in the renewable energy chain is unparalleled. China’s share of the global photovoltaic equipment market exceeds 90% at all stages of production, from polysilicon to finished modules, and projections from the International Energy Agency indicate that this concentration will remain above 34% even in 2030, a percentage that in practice means a monopoly when combined with the scale of production. In March of this year alone, Chinese exports of solar equipment in a single month equaled the total installed solar energy capacity of Spain.
In wind energy, the scenario is similar. The production of rare earth magnets used in wind turbines is overwhelmingly Chinese, with all other countries in the world combined representing a minimal fraction of the total volume. By July of last year, China had exported US$120 billion in clean energy technology, plus US$20 billion for August, values that demonstrate both the scale of Chinese industrial capacity and the dependence the rest of the world already had even before the blockade on Iran intensified the urgency for energy transition.
The paradox of trading oil dependence for China dependence
The long-term solution to the global energy crisis is to electrify economies with renewable sources, but this puts countries before a dilemma that European authorities already acknowledge. Not long ago, European Union officials traveled to Beijing to warn about overcapacity in the Chinese solar industry. Now the same officials fly back begging for this overcapacity to save them, a change in stance that reveals how much the war on Iran has accelerated the redistribution of global energy power. The cost of energy imports in the EU rose by 22 billion euros in just six weeks, a pressure that makes any concern about dependence on China secondary to the immediate need to secure supply.
The supertankers sailing to the US solve the short-term problem. Chinese clean energy technology solves the long-term one. But neither solution is free, and both create dependencies that importing countries would prefer not to have. The US sells oil at record prices while its own consumers pay more at the pump. China sells solar panels and turbines while consolidating an irreplaceable supplier position that no Western industrial policy will be able to counterbalance in the next decade. The world has traded one bottleneck for another, and the 70 supertankers en route to Texas are just the most visible symptom of an energy reorganization that is shaping the geopolitics of the century.
And you, do you think the solution is to invest in clean energy even knowing that it will depend on China, or is it better to stick with oil? Leave your opinion in the comments.
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