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Studies from USP and Ecoa warn that regulatory changes in the cooking gas market may affect revenue collection, inspection, cylinder traceability, and the safety of millions of consumers.
The cooking gas market has become the center of a regulatory debate that could have a significant economic and social impact in Brazil. According to studies from the School of Multidimensional Security at USP in February 2026, and Ecoa Economic Consultancy in March 2026, proposals under consideration could increase informality in the GLP sector.
Currently, the country distributes about 35 million cylinders per month, equivalent to 13 units per second. However, changes such as cross-filling, fractional filling at remote centers, and the replacement of the physical brand in high relief are concerning experts.
Cylinder traceability becomes a central point of the debate
Furthermore, the studies indicate that flexibility could weaken the physical traceability of the cylinders. Today, the engraved brand allows for identifying responsibilities in cases of failures, leaks, or accidents.
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According to USP, removing this control could hinder inspection. Consequently, companies might invest less in safety, maintenance, and requalification of the containers.
Between 2014 and 2024, the sector requalified 118 million containers. In the same period, 6 million cylinders were rendered unusable due to inadequate conditions. Investments exceeded R$ 9 billion, while annual requalification moves about R$ 280 million.
Organized crime may advance in the GLP sector
In this scenario, the study coordinated by professor Leandro Piquet Carneiro from USP warns of an additional risk. According to the analysis, the dilution of responsibility could create opportunities for militias and factions.
Currently, in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro, it is estimated that 70% to 80% of the retail cylinder trade is already under the influence of criminal groups. With flexibility, these groups could advance into filling and distribution.
Therefore, according to the professor, GLP could become a new frontier for organized crime in Brazil. The study also recalls the 1980s, before the National Cylinder Requalification Program, when domestic accidents increased.
Fiscal deficit could reach R$ 797 million per year
Besides the safety risk, Ecoa Economic Consultancy points to a direct impact on public coffers. If the GLP market reaches an informality level similar to that of cigarettes, at 41%, the loss could reach R$ 797.1 million per year.
Even so, smaller scenarios also raise concerns. With informality similar to that of automotive fuels, at 8.3%, the annual loss would be R$ 120.6 million. At a level similar to that of distilled beverages, at 28%, the deficit would reach R$ 474.8 million.
According to economist Claudia Viegas from Ecoa, the complex and widespread inspection across the country increases the risk. Furthermore, inspections by the ANP dropped by about 18% in 2024.
Reduced inspection may affect poorer families
At the same time, studies warn of the impact on vulnerable consumers. Programs like Gás do Povo expand access to cooking gas for about 15 million families.
However, informality may prevent access to the cashback provided for in the Tax Reform. This happens because the tax refund depends on the issuance of an invoice.
In light of this, USP and Ecoa recommend suspending discussions on cross-filling and remote filling. The institutions advocate for restoring the ANP’s budget, strengthening inspection, and maintaining the physical traceability of cylinders.
