With Petrobras, Brazil will be the global leader in the offshore oil production sector in 2025, according to data from GlobalData
On August 13th, one of the largest companies in the field of energy intelligence, GlobalData, announced that large offshore oil projects will emerge in Brazil over the next few years (2021 – 2025). According to forecasts, it is expected that the country, together with Petrobras, will contribute with approximately 23% of global production. This percentage corresponds to about 1,3 million barrels per day (mmbd). However, projects are still being planned and announced.
When we mention that a project is being planned, we mean that it has already received a final investment decision (FID) from companies that want to develop it and that it is just waiting for the stipulated date to start. In relation to announced projects, these have the purpose of informing that the projects are still undergoing studies, which precede the FID.
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After all, what are GlobalData's forecasts for offshore oil production?
According to published statistical data, in 2025, Brazil, represented by Petrobras, will achieve a value of 1,16 mmbd through offshore oil production and condensed. According to GlobalData forecasts, this amount will be raised through projects that have already been planned, which have already had their study defined and are just waiting for approval to be developed.
“A total of 29 crude oil projects are expected to start operating in the country during 2021-2025. Of these, Bacalhau, Búzios V (Franco) and the Tupi field are some of the main projects that are expected to contribute collectively to around 44% of the country's oil and condensate production in 2025," revealed GlobalData. As for the Senior Analyst of Oil and Gas at GD, Effuah Alleyne, even having countries that are largely strong in the list, Brazil has great chances of being the best in the future, thanks to Petrobras.
As can be seen in the chart, our country is the leader in oil production expected for the coming years. Such results will only be possible thanks to pre-salt layer in the Santos Basin, which has a vast and rich portfolio when it comes to offshore projects, most of which are led by Petrobras. With these projects being developed, the economy will have a lot to gain.
Especially with a barrel of oil costing something like $40 a barrel on average. If it continues on this path, it is estimated that Latin America's chances of surpassing North America's offshore production are real and could happen by 2023.
US lags behind in race for offshore oil production
With a wide advantage, Brazil takes the top of the results regarding production, leaving behind competitors such as: United States, Norway, China and Nigeria. Regarding production, it is expected that by 2025, the US will be able to make a total of 655 mbd of crude oil. Which would represent about 11% of the total offshore production of oil and condensate in the estimated year.
Already in third place, this would be occupied by Norway. With its offshore projects, it would be possible to raise the equivalent of 508 mbd in gross oil production by the year 2025. Regarding the companies that carry out the projects in each country, we have: Petrobras, China National Offshore Oil Corp and Equinor ASA.
These are the world's largest companies and leaders in offshore oil and condensate production. Making a total of 768 mbd, 371 mbd and 331 mbd, respectively, by the year 2025, including planned and announced projects. Therefore, by 2025, Brazil will be the world leader in this segment, according to data from GlobalData.
