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Canada’s Oil Exports to China Soar After US Sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Understand How the Trans Mountain Pipeline Redefined the Global Energy Market.
Amid global trade tensions and sanctions imposed by Washington, Canadian oil finds a new and influential destination: China. Recent data reveals a shift in Canada’s exports, driven by the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline and the reconfiguration of the international energy market.
Canadian Oil Takes New Directions After the Expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline
The global energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. Since the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) expansion came online in May 2024, Canada has been diversifying its oil export routes, especially toward Asia.
In this context, China has emerged as the largest buyer of Canadian crude oil transported by this pipeline.
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According to ship tracking data, average exports to China reached about 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) since TMX began operating at full capacity in June of last year. This represents a substantial jump from the average of just 7,000 bpd recorded in the decade leading up to 2023.
Canada Navigates Sanctions and Attracts Chinese Interest
The redirection of Canadian oil to the Chinese market is occurring amid a troubled geopolitical context. US trade sanctions against Russian and Venezuelan oil have altered global energy flows and increased demand for alternative sources — such as Canada.
The situation also reveals a certain irony: while the US punishes traditional suppliers to China, such as Russia and Venezuela, Canada, a historical ally of Washington, is seizing the gap in the market, even amid rising bilateral tensions in recent years, especially during Donald Trump’s administration.
“China’s new interest in Canadian oil comes at a time when American President Donald Trump’s trade war has strained relations between Washington and Ottawa, long-time allies,” the analysis highlights.
US$ 34 Billion Pipeline Boosts Exports Beyond the US
With an estimated cost of US$ 34 billion, the TMX expansion has tripled its transportation capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, allowing for the flow of oil from the Alberta province — which has no seacoast — to the Pacific coast.
Before the expansion, 90% of Canadian oil was exported to the United States via pipelines to the south. Now, TMX facilitates access to markets such as China, South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan.
Although oil is currently exempt from American tariffs, Canada is seeking to reduce its dependence on the US, following incidents where Washington imposed temporary tariffs on Canadian oil and even political threats that shook confidence in the historical partner.
China’s Rise as TMX’s Main Customer Surprises
The initial expectation was that the United States would be the biggest beneficiary of the new pipeline. However, the Chinese ended up surpassing the Americans, who extracted an average of 173,000 bpd from the pipeline during the same period.
“China’s prominent position as a buyer of TMX challenges some initial expectations that the US would be the largest buyer of crude oil sent through the pipeline,” the survey points out.
According to Philippe Rheault, director of the Chinese Institute at the University of Alberta, the behavior of Chinese refineries is directly linked to the new global political scenario:
“Many refineries in China are also aware of US sanctions and, therefore, have been trying to diversify their production away from Venezuelan oil and other sources.”
Furthermore, Rheault adds that Beijing is reluctant to rely excessively on Russian oil, which enhances the appeal of Canadian supply.
Exports Grow and Reignite Internal Debate on Infrastructure
Since the start of expanded TMX operations, Canadian oil exports to countries outside the US have increased by nearly 60%, reaching a record annual high of 183,000 bpd in 2024. This data reinforces the potential for diversification in the Canadian energy sector.
Internally, this growth has reignited discussions about the need to build new pipelines and coastal export terminals. However, the advancement of these proposals faces significant regulatory, political, and financial barriers.
Source: Petronotícias
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