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Weak Performance of Petrobras in 2024 Raises Questions About Dividends, With Shares Pressured by Tariff War and Fall in Oil Price
Petrobras shares (PETR4) have registered a cumulative devaluation of 16.8% in 2024. The weak performance has raised concerns among investors. The results for the fourth quarter of 2024 were disappointing to the market, and expectations are growing around the first quarter of 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 12.
Impact of the Tariff War Between the U.S. and China
Ruy Hungria, a dividend analyst at Empiricus Research, points out that the main factor behind the fall in shares is the tariff war between the United States and China.
Although oil was not included in the tariffs, the sector was affected. On April 2, following the announcement of new tariffs by Donald Trump, the state-owned company’s shares plunged sharply.
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According to Hungria, the problem lies in the indirect economic effects. Tariffs can cause a slowdown in the countries involved, reducing demand for oil.
“The generation of wealth generally falls, people start earning less money, and countries begin to have less disposable income. In the end, this reduces, among other things, oil consumption,” he explains.
Cheaper Oil Reduces Petrobras Margin
The drop in oil prices directly affects the state-owned company’s profit. With the cost of production per barrel remaining stable, the decline in commodity value pressures profit margins. This raises doubts about Petrobras’s ability to continue paying high dividends.
Today, Brent oil is trading around US$ 62. According to Hungria, this level still allows the company to generate cash. But he emphasizes: “In our calculations, it can generate a bit of cash until oil is a little above US$ 50. Below that, it begins to be a more negative scenario, which is unlikely.”
Petrobras Remains on the Radar of Dividend Investors
Even amid uncertainties, Hungria still sees Petrobras as a good option for those seeking dividends. Every month, he selects the five best stocks on the Brazilian stock exchange focused on dividends.
Petrobras is one of the chosen ones. The goal is to find mature companies with a proven ability to generate free cash flow and distribute profits sustainably over time.
With information from Empiricus.
