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Study by British bank Barclays projects that China could have 24 million humanoid robots installed by 2035 to compensate for the projected reduction of 37 million workers, a result of the accelerated aging of the population and the historic decline in the country’s birth rate.
China faces a critical demographic combination that threatens the sustainability of its industrial base: the workforce is shrinking, the working-age population has lost ten percentage points in the last decade, and the number of births recorded in 2025 was the lowest since at least 1949, the year the People’s Republic was founded.
To compensate for this shortage, the British bank Barclays projects that China could install up to 24 million humanoid robots by 2035, a number equivalent to almost 4% of the country’s workforce and greater than the entire population of Taiwan, which is around 23 million inhabitants, and also more than São Paulo (11 million) and Rio de Janeiro (6 million), which together total about 18 million inhabitants.
According to Barclays analysts, the Chinese workforce could shrink by about 37 million people in the next decade, considering current demographic projections, a number that puts particular pressure on the industrial sector, responsible for approximately a quarter of the entire Chinese economy.
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The bank’s analysts emphasize that isolated productivity gains would not be sufficient to fully compensate for the impacts of the population decline, making automation and robotics not just a strategic option, but a structural necessity for China to maintain its position as the world’s largest industrial exporter.
In an optimistic scenario outlined by Barclays, the 24 million humanoid robots would be sufficient to cover about 60% of the projected reduction in the workforce, helping the country sustain its industrial base even in the face of the aging process that will intensify over the next two decades.
The demographic crisis behind the robotic race
The working-age population represented more than 70% of China’s total inhabitants ten years ago and fell to about 61% in 2025, a downward trajectory that reflects the long-term effects of the one-child policy adopted by the country between 1980 and 2015 and cultural patterns that still limit birth rates.
The proportion of working-age people for each citizen over 65 years old is already about four to one, but according to Barclays projections, this ratio could halve in the next twenty years, creating increasing pressure on the pension system and the productive capacity of the economy.
For analysts, the combination of fewer available workers and higher domestic consumer demand creates an exceptionally favorable environment for the accelerated expansion of robotics in the country, where companies will need to replace human labor to maintain production levels and international competitiveness.
President Xi Jinping has publicly advocated for investments in science and technology, including advanced robotics, as a central part of China’s long-term economic strategy, a vision that translates into government subsidies, production targets, and preferential purchasing policies for domestically manufactured robots.
Chinese leadership in the global robotics industry
China is already the world’s largest market for industrial robots and is home to companies like Unitree Robotics and UBTech, which develop humanoid robots for use in factories, logistics, and services, leveraging the enormous domestic market to fund research and reduce production costs on a scale that no other country can replicate.
The country invests in robotics from both the supply and demand sides, creating a virtuous cycle that accelerates technological development: factories need robots, Chinese companies manufacture them with government support, and the domestic market absorbs the production, financing new generations of more advanced equipment.
Humanoid robots represent the most ambitious frontier of this movement, as their ability to operate in spaces designed for humans, without the need for adaptation of existing infrastructure, makes them natural candidates for replacing workers on assembly lines, warehouses, and industrial maintenance activities.
Barclays analysts summarized China’s bet in a phrase that circulated widely after the report’s publication: “This is the decade of robots, and it belongs to China”, an assessment that reflects both the country’s current leadership and the investment trajectory projected for the coming years.
The race for humanoid robots in China also has geopolitical implications: countries that dominate this technology will have a competitive advantage not only in manufacturing but in strategic sectors such as military logistics, space exploration, and management of critical infrastructures in the coming decades.
Brazil and other developing countries are closely monitoring this movement, as large-scale automation in China could alter global supply chains, pressure manufacturing costs in other countries, and redefine the profile of available jobs in the global industry over the next twenty years.
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