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Wind power is currently facing a historic decline in 2024. However, experts predict a strong recovery from 2027 onwards.
So in this article you will understand the reasons for the slowdown, as well as the impact of energy oversupply and furthermore, the growth of solar energy in the country.
Furthermore, we explore the offshore energy prospects and therefore the factors that will drive the sector In the next years.
Wind Power Decline and Impacts on the Sector
Wind Energy in Brazil: Decline in 2024 and Expectations of Recovery in 2027
Without a doubt, the installation of wind farms in Brazil dropped significantly in 2024. Thus, the total was 3,3 GW of installed capacity, which represents a 31,25% reduction compared to the previous year.
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Thus, this retreat occurs in the midst of a energy demand crisis, resulting from energy oversupply in the country and, at the same time, reduction in the pace of new investments in the sector.
A Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABEEólica) provides that the unfavorable situation will remain until 2026.
However, experts estimate a resumption of growth from 2027, driven by the increased power load, economic growth and, above all, new demand factorsLike data center expansion and green hydrogen.
Reasons for the Decline in Wind Energy in Brazil
The main factors that led to the reduction in the installation of wind farms include:
- Oversupply of energy, which consequently reduces the need of new ventures.
- High costs, thus making it difficult to feasibility of new projects.
- Reduction in government incentives, which impacts the expansion of renewable energy.
- Crisis in the wind turbine industry, directly influenced by increased international costs.
The Advancement of Solar Energy and the Expansion of the Renewable Matrix
On the other hand, while the wind power slows down, solar energy grows rapidly.
In 2024 the electrical matrix received 14,3 GW of solar capacity. As a result, there was a 37,8% growth compared to the previous year.
A distributed generation, which includes small installed systems on roofs and facades, represented 8,7 GW of this total, While 5,7 GW came from centralized solar plants.
This growth, in turn, causes changes in the electrical grid and management of the National Electric System Operator (ONS).
The Role of Offshore Energy in a Sustainable Future
From 2027, the wind power must warm up again. This is because new projects e higher energy consumption will boost demand.
Furthermore, approval of the regulatory framework for offshore wind energy represents a positive factor for the sector.
Thus, the prediction is that auctions for the use of marine areas happen from 2025.
