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Armenian Chancellor Claims Peace With Azerbaijan is Near, but Internal Resistance, Controversial Demands, and Popular Distrust Keep Atmosphere of Uncertainty in the Country
On April 14th, Armenian Chancellor Ararat Mirzoyan declared that the peace with Azerbaijan has never been closer. The announcement generated international reactions and renewed hopes for a definitive end to the conflict in the Caucasus region. However, the minister’s optimism is not shared by part of the Armenian population, who still views the process differently.
Historic Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
The conflict between the two countries revolves around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, located in Azerbaijan’s territory but historically populated by ethnic Armenians. The first conflict began in the late 1980s after the region’s parliament voted for unification with Armenia.
In 1994, a Russia-mediated ceasefire gave Armenians control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation remained tense until 2020 when Azerbaijan launched a new offensive to reclaim lost territories. The war did not result in the complete recapture of the region.
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In 2023, Azerbaijani troops carried out a surprise attack to retake Artsakh, the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh. The episode led to the flight of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The displaced sought refuge primarily in Armenia.
Peace Agreement Finalized
In March of this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached the final text of a peace agreement. The plan provides for the possibility of ethnic Armenians returning to their homes in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Since then, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has declared his readiness to sign the agreement, with only the date and location remaining to be defined.
To advance with the treaty, Armenia needs to accept conditions imposed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s government. Among them are creating a land corridor connecting the Nakhchivan exclave to Azerbaijan and a constitutional reform in Armenia.
Constitutional Change and Popular Resistance to the Peace Agreement
The Constitution of Armenia references the Declaration of Independence, which recognizes the rights of Armenian citizens, including those living in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan views this text as a territorial claim. Pashinyan stated he favors removing these references, but the measure depends on popular approval via referendum.
Surveys show that over 90% of the Armenian population opposes the constitutional change. This rejection widens the gap between the government and the population regarding the peace process.
Zangezur Corridor Generates Controversy
Another controversial demand is the creation of the so-called Zangezur corridor, which would connect Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan, cutting through Armenian territory.
For the Azerbaijani government, the proposal represents a direct connection without the need to involve Iran. However, for many Armenians, it would compromise the country’s sovereignty.
Political sectors and a large part of the population see the project as a threat to Armenia’s territorial integrity. There are fears that the corridor would allow Azerbaijani military presence on Armenian soil.
As an alternative, the Armenian government proposed a railway connection to Baku. So far, Azerbaijan has not formally responded to the offer.
Accusations of Violations and Cultural Erasure
Even with the peace plan underway, tensions continue. In recent days, the Azerbaijani government accused Armenian troops of violating the ceasefire at the border.
Armenia, on the other hand, denounced episodes of destruction of Armenian cultural symbols in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would be an attempt to erase the historical presence of the Armenian population in the region.
Uncertain Future
Despite the proximity of the agreement, the obstacles remain. Internal rejection of the constitutional reform, the controversy surrounding the Zangezur corridor, and mutual accusations between the countries still hinder the realization of peace.
With information from Metrópoles.
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