English 
Spanish 
3 min read
0 comments
Understand the economic and geopolitical factors behind the rise in fuel prices and discover the outlook for 2025, according to experts and data from ANP.
Increase in gasoline prices? The end of 2024 brought some not-so-encouraging news for Brazilian drivers: the price of gasoline reached an average of R$6,15 per liter, the second highest price recorded in the last 15 years. According to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), the record was only surpassed in 2021, during the pandemic. The increase in fuel prices during the Lula administration reflects a combination of economic and geopolitical factors that directly influenced Brazilians' pockets. Want to know what is behind this increase and what to expect for 2025? Stay tuned!
What explains the increase in gasoline?
The increase in gasoline in 2024 was mainly driven by the rise in the dollar, which reached a historic high of R$6,27 in December. As Brazil partially depends on gasoline and diesel imports, the appreciation of the US currency directly impacted costs for distributors and importers.
Even with a national refining park operated by Petrobras, the country still needs to import fuel to meet demand. This means that variations in the exchange rate and the international price of a barrel of oil affect the prices paid by consumers at the pump.
- Fuel price gap: Pressure on Petrobras, rise in the dollar and impacts on the Brazilian economy.
- Fuel Price Acceleration in 2024: Highlight for Ethanol and Gasoline
- Gasoline and ethanol close 2024 with high prices, says Edenred Ticket Log.
- Diesel Price Boom: Regular Diesel and S-10 Reach Highest Average Prices in 2024, Reports Edenred Ticket Log.
Comparison of gasoline with other fuels
While gasoline showed a 5,85% increase in 2024, other fuels followed different trajectories. Check out the numbers:
| Fuel | Price in 2023 | Price in 2024 | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | R$5,81 | R$6,15 | + 5,85 % |
| Ethanol | R$2,97 | R$3,41 | + 14,76 % |
| Diesel | R$6,15 | R$6,06 | -1,62% |
Ethanol recorded the largest percentage increase, rising 14,76% and ending the year with an average price of R$3,41 per liter. Diesel, surprisingly, had a slight drop of 1,62%, closing 2024 at R$6,06 per liter.
Expectations for 2025
Despite the increase in fuel prices in 2024, there are signs that 2025 could bring some relief for drivers. The World Bank predicts that the price of a barrel of oil will fall from an average of US$80 in 2024 to US$73. If this drop materializes, it is possible that prices at the pump will also be adjusted.
However, the outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors. International conflicts and tensions in the Middle East could put upward pressure on oil prices, offsetting the benefits of a possible drop in the price of a barrel.
Impacts on Brazilians' pockets
The increase in gasoline prices has a cascading effect, impacting not only the direct costs for drivers, but also the prices of products and services. Since much of the transportation of goods in Brazil depends on trucks and vehicles powered by fossil fuels, the adjustments end up being reflected in inflation.
The high price of fuel forces many people to seek alternatives, such as public transport or even the use of bicycles and electric vehicles. This change in behavior, although positive from an environmental point of view, also reveals the burden that high costs impose on family budgets.
The role of the Lula government in the fuel issue
The Lula government has faced pressure to adopt measures to mitigate fuel price increases. Among the alternatives under discussion are policies to stabilize the exchange rate, incentives for domestic production of biofuels and even subsidies to reduce the impact of price increases.
Petrobras also plays a crucial role in this scenario. The company's mission is to balance the country's economic interests with its responsibility as the main fuel supplier. Any decision to adjust domestic prices depends on external and internal factors, such as the price of a barrel of oil and the exchange rate.
