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Fuel prices will skyrocket in 2025! With the increase in ICMS, the rise in the dollar and the high price of oil, gasoline and diesel are weighing even more heavily on Brazilians' pockets. Understand what is behind this crisis and how it can impact the economy and your daily lives in this challenging year
The year 2025 began with news that is already causing concern in Brazilian homes: fuel is more expensive, and the outlook for the coming months is not encouraging.
Between the increase in ICMS, the rise of the dollar and the resumption of international oil prices, gasoline and diesel prices continue to rise and weigh on the budgets of drivers and industry.
ICMS and fuels: what changed in 2025
According to portal Folha de S. Paulo, As of February, the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), which is levied on fuel, underwent a significant adjustment across almost the entire national territory.
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This change occurs in a context where states seek to reinforce their revenues in light of the need to balance public accounts.
- For gasoline, the ICMS went from R$1,37 to R$1,47 per liter, an increase of 7,3%.
- For diesel, the rate rose from R$1,0635 to R$1,12 per liter, representing a growth of 5,31%.
According to experts, this increase is one of the main reasons for the immediate increase in fuel prices at the pumps.
According to the National Federation of Fuel and Lubricant Trade (Fecombustíveis), the impact on the end consumer could reach R$0,25 in the price of a liter of gasoline.
Rising oil and dollar prices worsen the situation
Another factor contributing to price pressure is the recent rise in oil prices on the international market. Between December 2024 and January 2025, the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose from US$72 to US$76.
Analysts predict that political tension involving sanctions on Iran and other producing countries could keep prices elevated in the coming months.
The rise of the dollar has also directly influenced the cost of fuels, since Brazil imports part of what it consumes. In recent months, the US currency has surpassed the R$5,30 barrier, making imports even more expensive.
Petrobras and private refineries: divergent policies
Petrobras, the country's main fuel supplier, announced that it will still assess market conditions before making new adjustments.
In 2024, the state-owned company made few price changes: there was only one increase in gasoline and none in diesel.
This stance contrasts with that of private refineries, such as the Mataripe Refinery, controlled by Acelen, which continues to pass on fluctuations in the international market more frequently.
At the end of December 2024, for example, Mataripe increased the selling prices of gasoline and diesel, justifying the movement by the rise in the dollar.
This model of frequent adjustments can increase regional disparities in fuel prices, since private refineries have greater influence in some regions of Brazil, such as the Northeast.
Impacts on consumers and the economy
Fuel price hikes have a ripple effect across the economy, raising transportation and logistics costs and, consequently, the prices of goods and services. For consumers, this means less money in their pockets and greater inflationary pressure.
Experts point out that the rise in fuel prices could also make it difficult for the Central Bank to reduce interest rates, which needs to control inflation before easing monetary policy.
The role of government and the search for solutions
Given this scenario, the federal government has discussed alternatives to alleviate the impact of fuels on the population.
Among the options considered is the expansion of subsidies to reduce consumer prices, but this measure faces resistance due to its high fiscal cost.
Another alternative would be to invest in renewable energy sources and encourage the use of electric vehicles, a global trend that still faces structural challenges in Brazil, such as the lack of infrastructure for recharging.
With the combination of increased ICMS, high oil prices and exchange rate pressure, the scenario for fuels in 2025 requires attention from both the government and society.
Consumers need to adapt to these new prices, while the government must find solutions sustainable to mitigate impacts and ensure a more balanced energy future.
And you, do you believe that the price of gasoline could exceed R$10 per liter in 2025? Comment your opinion!
