With Collected Revenue Below Expectations and Oil Prices Low, Government Considers Auctioning Oil Surpluses Already in Production. Analysts See Limited Impact for Petrobras
Amid pressure for new revenue sources, the Brazilian government is evaluating conducting auctions for oil surpluses in fields that are already in production. The move arises in a scenario of collected revenue below expectations and oil prices in sharp decline.
Revenue Forecast Between US$ 3 Billion and 5 Billion
The expectation is that the new auctions will generate revenue of up to US$ 5 billion, which is equivalent to about R$ 28.5 billion. This amount is considered significant for public coffers, especially given the gap between the current average oil price, estimated at US$ 73, and the US$ 80 projected in the 2025 budget.
Limited Impact for Petrobras, Analysts Say
According to analysts at BTG Pactual, the government’s initiative is not expected to bring significant impacts for Petrobras (PETR4). The bank highlights that, even with lower oil prices, the state-owned company remains one of the best alternatives in the oil and gas sector.
-
A 45 km² oil slick appears in satellite images near Kharg Island, an area that accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
-
While Petrobras operates at 7,000 meters in the pre-salt layer, China is extracting oil and gas at 10,910 meters onshore — Shenditake 1 is the world’s first onshore well to exceed 10 km.
-
Brazil discovers natural hydrogen in four states and enters the silent race that could redraw the energy transition: Petrobras has already invested R$ 20 million in studies.
-
Trump promises transparency in Venezuela’s oil, but secret deals and corruption allegations continue to surround the billion-dollar sector.
Despite the potential fiscal reinforcement, BTG warns that the main risks for Petrobras continue to come from the international scenario.
Geopolitical uncertainty and fears of a global economic slowdown continue to pressure oil prices, which may directly influence the dividends paid by the company.
Petrobras Maintains Buy Recommendation
Even in the face of adversity, BTG maintains its buy recommendation for Petrobras shares. The assessment considers the company’s financial structure, which is deemed solid.
The bank also maintains the target price of US$ 20.00 for Petrobras ADRs traded on the New York Stock Exchange (PBR).
With information from Acionista.

Be the first to react!