Coffee Prices Decline For The First Time In A Year And A Half, And Experts Predict Further Drops

Written by Maria Heloisa Barbosa Borges

Published on 26/07/2025 at 09:40

Preço do café cai após 18 meses e pode seguir em queda com avanço da colheita no Brasil

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After 18 Consecutive Highs, Coffee Price Falls in July and Trend Is Downward with Advancement of Harvest in the Country

The coffee price fell 0.36% in July, according to the IPCA-15, released by IBGE. This was the first reduction in the price of the product for consumers in a year and a half, ending a series of increases that had lasted since December 2023.

Despite the drop, ground coffee still accumulates inflation of 76.5% over 12 months. Experts point out that the advancement of the Brazilian harvest may keep prices on a downward trajectory in the coming months.

Coffee Starts to Get Cheaper in the Supermarket

Coffee price falls for the 1st time in a year and a half and experts predict new declines

The survey by IBGE showed that the coffee price retracted for the first time in 18 months. The drop was recorded in the preliminary data of the official inflation measured by the IPCA-15, which considers prices between the 16th of the previous month and the 15th of the month of publication.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Expectation Is of New Drops in the Coming Months

Economists interviewed by the G1 portal in June had already anticipated the drop in the coffee price, due to the harvest occurring between March and September in Brazil. The months of June and July concentrate the highest volume, which tends to increase supply and pressure prices downwards.

In addition, Fipe had already pointed out a decrease in coffee prices in its inflation index (IPC) in the week prior to the IBGE survey, reinforcing the trend towards relief for consumers.

Uncertainties in the External Market Also Impact

Another factor that may influence the coffee price is the trade policy of the United States. A tariff of 50% on Brazilian products is set to take effect on August 1, unless an agreement is reached between the countries. The U.S. is the main destination for coffee exported by Brazil, accounting for 16% of external sales.

According to the Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), even with the risk of the tariff, other markets such as China, India, Indonesia, and Australia may increase their demand for Brazilian coffee, helping to balance the sector.

Have you noticed a drop in the price of coffee where you live? Share your experience in the comments.

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Coffee Prices Decline For The First Time In A Year And A Half, And Experts Predict Further Drops

After 18 Consecutive Highs, Coffee Price Falls in July and Trend Is Downward with Advancement of Harvest in the Country

Coffee Starts to Get Cheaper in the Supermarket

Expectation Is of New Drops in the Coming Months

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After 18 Consecutive Highs, Coffee Price Falls in July and Trend Is Downward with Advancement of Harvest in the Country

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Expectation Is of New Drops in the Coming Months

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Cambodia has started digging a nearly 180-kilometer canal to connect the Mekong River directly to the sea and reduce its dependence on the ports of neighboring Vietnam.

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China has put millions of electric cars on the roads, but now faces the side effect: more than 1 million tons of batteries are expected to go out of use per year by 2030, while the government expands tracking and combats illegal dismantling with environmental risks.

An Indonesian fisherman pulls a mysterious object from the sea and discovers that it is a Chinese underwater monitoring system, part of the so-called Underwater Great Wall that Beijing uses to track submarines and unmanned vehicles in strategic straits of the region.

While the end of the 6×1 schedule becomes a national debate, Brazilians work almost 2,000 hours a year, have the 4th longest working hours in South America, and still live in one of the most unequal countries in the region, showing that working too much does not mean better income distribution.

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