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Oil Prices Drop Again And Are Expected To Close The Third Straight Month In Decline. Market Reacts To Excess Supply Concerns, Strong Dollar And Slowdown Of Chinese Economy Ahead Of The OPEC+ Meeting.
Oil prices ended the month of October 2025 at a new low, consolidating a devaluation cycle that has lasted for three months. The combination of a stronger dollar, weak economic data from China, and expectations regarding increased global production has pressured the market.
On the morning of Friday, the 31st, Brent recorded a decline of 0.48%, trading at US$ 64.69 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI fell 0.66%, quoted at US$ 60.17. Both have accumulated losses of over 3% just in October, reflecting growing concerns about the global oil supply excess.
Strong Dollar And Fed Stance Intensify Pressure On Oil
The strengthening of the dollar has been a key factor in the recent instability of the oil market. Following statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the outlook became even more cautious. Powell pointed out that there is no “obvious conclusion” regarding the possibility of a new interest rate cut in December, which reduced investors’ appetite for risky assets.
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Petrobras made two discoveries in the pre-salt of the Campos Basin in less than 30 days: “excellent quality” oil in Marlim Sul in March and hydrocarbons at 2,984 meters in April.
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The government will pay R$ 1.20 for each liter of diesel that Brazil imports and for the first time in history requires distributors to reveal how much they profit — those who hide their margins will face fines of up to R$ 500 million…
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Under kilometers of water, rock, and salt, Brazil hides a colossal wealth that led an official guide from the U.S. government to recognize the country as the owner of the largest ultra-deep oil reserves in the world.
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Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, but in practice only 1 non-Iranian oil tanker managed to cross in 24 hours — before the blockade, 100 ships passed per day.
With the American currency on the rise, the price of oil tends to decline, as oil is priced in dollars. Consequently, importing countries end up paying more for the commodity, decreasing global demand.
China’s Slowdown Aggravates Demand Concerns
Another point of concern comes from China, the world’s largest oil importer. Official data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity fell to the lowest level in six months, registering 49.0 points on the October PMI index — below expectations and down 0.8 points compared to September.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the industry, reinforcing fears of lower energy consumption in the country. Although the non-manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase, reaching 50.1 points, the movement was insufficient to reverse market pessimism.
Amid price instability, attention now turns to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for November 2. The group, composed of the world’s largest oil producers, is expected to discuss its production policy and assess measures to stabilize the market.
According to preliminary information, there is an expectation that an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December production will be announced. This measure is part of a strategy to expand market share and offset losses caused by Western sanctions that restrict Russian oil exports to China and India.
Global Supply Excess And Economic Uncertainties Weigh On Prices
The oil market faces a delicate situation. On one side, increased production in OPEC+ member countries and the recovery of supply in the United States; on the other, the slowdown of the global economy and a cooling of demand, especially in Asia.
Combined, these factors have fueled fears that the world is heading towards a supply excess, which tends to keep prices under pressure in the coming months.
Despite the uncertainties, analysts believe that the downward trend could be reversed if OPEC+ adopts a more cautious stance and opts to slow down production increases. Additionally, a potential interest rate cut in the United States, although unlikely in the short term, could weaken the dollar and provide new support to energy commodities.
In the meantime, investors remain vigilant to diplomatic movements and the upcoming economic indicators from China and the United States, which will dictate the pace of the global oil market in the coming weeks.
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