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Growth Forecast of 4.1% per Year Considering the Mandatory Addition of Anhydrous Ethanol (to Gasoline) at a Ratio of 27%. Additionally, the Tax Differentiation in Fuels Reflects the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan According to the (EPE) Energy Research Company.
Thus, according to projections, the productivity of biofuels will advance by about 1.4% each year, potentially reaching over 81 million tons by the end of the decade (2022-2032). These estimates take into account significant productivity gains per hectare. A possible increase from 8.2 million to 9.2 million hectares in planting area.
However, sugarcane harvest could account for 751 million tons of total generation, intended for both ethanol and sugar production. Thus, the expectation is that approximately 56% of this volume will be reserved solely for ethanol production, which is only 1% more than the year 2022, which was 55%.
It is worth noting that the overall raw material rate could increase to 45%, while it was only 35% before. All of this because the percentage corresponds to a 2.5% growth annually.
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Ethanol made from sugarcane will maintain its majority share in the total fuel supply. This will add up to more than 36.1 billion liters by the year 2023. In 2021, it was 26.6 billion. Thus, corn ethanol production is also expected to advance in the coming years, reaching over 9.1 billion liters by the year 2032.
Lignocellulosic ethanol derived from biomass is projected to exceed 560 million liters. It is a second-generation biofuel and utilizes a partnership with the bagasse of the straw produced. Ethanol demand will reach 43 billion liters, representing a 4.2% increase over the decade. Additionally, the company foresees greater competitiveness with positive signals coming from RenovaBio concerning gasoline.
Biodiversity
The Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Union reports that 80% of bioelectricity comes from sugarcane waste. These are substrates that compose second-generation fuels.
Currently, about 236 sugar-energy units sell energy through auctions, representing 40% of the total. As of October 2022, 64 auctions had been held with energy sales from 32 sugar-energy plants. In September of the previous year, 2022, the productive capacity of sugarcane biomass was 12.2 GW, a 30% increase compared to 2016.
The Brazil will export 2.3 billion liters of ethanol with 45 million tons by the year 2032. This factor boosts demand growth from countries such as those in Africa and Asia. One of the market trends for next year is to bet on increasing the volume of ethanol that will be traded.
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