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ANP Forecast Indicates 29% Increase in Onshore Oil and Gas Production by 2028, Driven by Regulatory Measures and New Operators in the Sector
The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) announced, on April 2, 2025, that Brazilian oil and natural gas production in onshore fields could grow 29% by 2028, reaching approximately 300,271 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed).
This projection represents an advancement compared to the 232,328 boed estimated for 2024, reflecting the gradual recovery of national production in the onshore segment.
ANP Measures Boost Gradual Recovery of Onshore Production
According to the ANP, the expectation for 2025 is that production will reach 242,276 boed, which would represent a growth of 4.3% compared to the previous year.
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This scenario is associated with a set of regulatory measures adopted in recent years, particularly reductions in the royalty rate on incremental production and incentives for mature fields.
Additionally, the ANP introduced rules for extending concession contracts, as well as specific benefits for small and medium enterprises. This aims to continuously foster the development of onshore production in the country.
Petrobras Divestments Create Space for New Operators
In addition to regulatory actions, the Petrobras divestment program, initiated years ago, has also allowed the entry of more than 50 independent operators in the onshore segment. As a result, the market has become more dynamic and competitive.
This has led the market to present, on one hand, greater diversification and, on the other, increased competitiveness. Furthermore, the presence of these new operators has significantly contributed to the revitalization of areas that were previously operated exclusively by the state-owned company.
The ANP estimates that, if this growth pace is maintained, production could approach the levels observed in 2016, when it reached about 298,935 boed. Still, this forecast is subject to economic and operational variables that could impact the results.
Outlook for the Coming Years Requires Continuous Monitoring
The regulatory agency will continue monitoring the performance of onshore production and promoting adjustments whenever necessary. The goal is to maintain a stable and transparent regulatory environment that favors responsible and sustainable investment. With this aim, the ANP will continue adjusting its actions and monitoring the results of implemented initiatives.
In this context, Brazil presents favorable conditions for the development of onshore oil and gas production, as long as current policies remain effective and operators continue to comply with regulatory and environmental requirements.
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