Historic Record of Stored Energy Marks First Half of 2023

Exceeding 80% in All Subsystems with Highlight on the North, Expected to Close at 99.6%

The Monthly Operation Program (PMO) report, focused on the operational week spanning from June 24 to 30, outlines a very promising projection for Brazil in terms of Stored Energy (EAR). The projection for the end of June reveals an exceedance of 80% in all subsystems. With the expectation of reaching a significant mark of 99.6% in the North and 86.2% in the Southeast/Central-West, the country could register the highest rates in the entire historical series, which started in 1999, for both regions.

Expansion of the National Interconnected System and Regional Trends

The outlook for the National Interconnected System (SIN) at the end of June points to a growth of 2.2% (69,971 MWavg), in line with the pattern observed in previous revisions. Three regions show prospects for expansion: the North, with 14.3% (7,112 MWavg), the Northeast, 6.9% (11,729 MWavg), and the Southeast/Central-West, with a modest increase of 0.2% (39,031 MWavg). Meanwhile, the South indicates a reduction in load of 1.5% (12,099 MWavg). These data contrast the estimates for June 2023 with the same period last year.

Marginal Cost of Operation at Zero and Impact of El Niño

For the twenty-seventh consecutive week, the Marginal Cost of Operation (CMO) remains at zero across all subsystems, demonstrating a trend that began at the end of December 2022.

Regarding Natural Water Inflow (ENA) for the end of the current month, projections are consistent with expectations for the typically dry period. However, the El Niño phenomenon has already begun to impact, with forecasts of above-average rainfall in the South, above-average temperatures in the Central-South, and decreased precipitation in the North and Northeast. Thus, the Southeast/Central-West, a region that accounts for 70% of the relevant reservoirs for the SIN, maintained the outlook to reach the highest percentage among all subsystems on the last day of June: 94% of the Long-Term Average (MLT). Following that, we have the North at 76% of the MLT, the South at 63% of the MLT, and finally, the Northeast at 51% of the MLT.