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External Dependence Exposes Brazil’s Vulnerability; Experts Warn of Rising Costs, Declining Agricultural Production, and Urgent Need for Sustainable Alternatives
The Brazilian agribusiness may face a severe blow if secondary sanctions against Russia advance. This is the assessment of two experts who see a direct risk to production in the field and to the pocket of those who cultivate.
Experts indicate that, if the United States imposes extra tariffs on countries that trade with Russia, Brazil will be one of the most affected. This is because national agriculture is highly dependent on imported fertilizers from there, which could strike at the heart of agribusiness.
The Weight of Brazil’s Dependence
Today, a large part of the fertilizers used in Brazilian fields comes from abroad, especially from Russia and Belarus.
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Iran became the largest buyer of Brazilian corn with 9.1 million tons, but the cargo leaves the field heading towards a global tension zone: sanctions, military risk in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and dependence on fertilizers turn the giant client of the national agribusiness into an alert for the next harvest.
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Saudi Arabia bought nearly 397,000 tons of Brazilian chicken, but now wants to create a poultry empire in the desert: the self-sufficiency plan targets local production, threatens shipments from BRF, JBS, and Seara, and raises an alert for Brazil in the halal market until 2030.
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War in Iran raises fertilizer prices, triggers alert in Brazilian agribusiness, and leads the government to seek new suppliers to avoid impacts on the harvest.
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Soybeans plummet in Chicago with favorable weather in the United States, and Brazilian producers hold off sales due to price pressure and lack of market response.
It is this input that essential crops like soy, corn, and wheat depend on, which sustain not only internal consumption but also the exports that keep the country among the largest producers in the world.
Fertilizers can account for a considerable portion of production costs. If trade barriers arise, prices may skyrocket, reducing usage in the field and compromising agricultural productivity.
In other words, without fertilizer, there is no abundant harvest, and Brazilian competitiveness is at risk.
A Future of Uncertainty or Change?
The concern is not limited to the short term. The fertilizer crisis exposes Brazil’s lack of strategic planning on issues of food security, energy, and even military sovereignty.
Three paths are possible: seek suppliers in other countries, encourage national fertilizer production, and invest in more sustainable agricultural practices, such as the use of bioinputs.
These solutions, however, require time, investment, and political will. Until then, the Brazilian producer remains hostage to an increasingly tense international scenario, where decisions made outside the country can define the price and quantity of what reaches the population’s table. And, in light of this reality, the word that repeats most among experts is urgency: either Brazil diversifies its supply sources and strengthens its own industry, or it risks seeing its production shrink.
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