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Brazil’s Trade Surplus Fell 22.5% by September 2025, Reaching US$ 45.5 Billion, Following Rise in Imports and Tariffs Imposed by the U.S. Government Seeks New Agreements with Mexico and Canada to Reverse the Scenario
The positive balance of Brazil’s trade from January to September 2025 recorded a significant decline of 22.5%, falling to US$ 45.5 billion compared to the same period in 2024.
The contraction is attributed to the increase in imports and the reduction in shipments to the United States, the main destination affected by the new tariffs.
Exports Grow, but Imports Pull Results Down
Despite exports registering a slight increase of 1.1%, reaching US$ 257.8 billion, this performance was not enough to compensate for the rise in external purchases.
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Havan, the retailer from Santa Catarina owned by Luciano Hang, will offer a contract of R$ 40,000 to whoever produces the best video in tribute to the company’s 40th anniversary, in a national influencer contest open to anyone with a profile on Instagram or TikTok.
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After criticizing millions who receive Bolsa Família, Luciano Hang is considering opening stores in Paraguay while predicting a ‘collapse’ in Brazil with the end of the 6×1 work schedule and the conviction that ‘only a disaster’ would save the country; the owner of Havan talks about an explosion in inflation, a cost increase of up to 20%, and risks for thousands of Brazilian companies.
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Giant Serie A club of the Brasileirão undergoes mass layoffs, putting up to 90 people out on the street and promoting a “silent reorganization” after the arrival of the SAF, affecting strategic sectors and causing a strong atmosphere of tension behind the scenes of Brazilian football.
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China found a loophole and is entering Europe through the back door by setting up an army of factories for batteries, tires, and auto parts on the other side of the Strait of Gibraltar, in Morocco, which bypass the tariffs of up to 45% that Brussels established precisely to block Chinese electric cars.
Imports totaled US$ 212.3 billion, with an expansion of 8.2% during the period.
The government stated that one of the decisive factors for the decline in surplus was the cut in sales to the North American market, which saw a drop of 20.3% after the imposition of high tariffs by the administration of Donald Trump.
September: Exports Boosted, but Imports Soar
In September, Brazil’s trade balance was US$ 3.0 billion, a decrease of 41.1% compared to the same month last year.
Despite exports rising 7.2%, driven by agricultural and extractive industry products, imports grew 17.7%, particularly for capital goods, which saw an increase of 73.2%.
Export Destinations: Regional Fluctuations
The export performance varied according to the destination markets. Brazil increased sales to:
- China: +14.7%
- European Union: +2.0%
- Mercosur: +27.6%
- Canada: +5.3%
- Mexico: +9.1%
On the other hand, exports to Japan and United States shrank by 38.8% and 20.3%, respectively— the latter market affected by additional tariffs of up to 50%, in effect since August.
Impacts of Tariffs and Diplomatic Maneuvering
September was the second month in effect of the new taxes imposed by the U.S. on various Brazilian products.
According to the Brazilian government, these measures may have been motivated by the legal process against former president Jair Bolsonaro—an ally of Republican Trump—sentenced to 27 years in prison for involvement in a coup.
In response, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva asked the U.S. government to review these tariffs and the sanctions imposed on Brazilian authorities involved in the case.
Official sources describe the dialogue as friendly. At the same time, Brazil intensified negotiations with Mexico, Canada, and other partners to strengthen bilateral trade and diversify destinations.
Brazilian authorities hope that these initiatives will help mitigate the drop in the trade balance surplus and recover export performance in the remaining months of 2025.
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