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Study Reveals That Those Who Believe in Theories Like Flat Earth or the Fake Moon Landing Tend to Overestimate Their Own Abilities.
The belief that the Earth is flat still has supporters in the 21st century. Known as flat-earthers, these individuals hold ideas contrary to the scientific consensus, often with great conviction.
Now, a new study suggests that this confidence may not be a coincidence: those who believe in flat Earth and other conspiracy theories tend to be excessively confident — even when they are wrong.
Flat Earth and Other Radical Beliefs
Conspiracy theories come in various forms. Some more common, such as the belief that the moon landing was forged, divide opinions.
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Others, like the idea that the Earth is flat or that the world is controlled by reptilian humanoids, challenge any known scientific basis.
But a new study conducted by researchers from Cornell University suggests that there is a pattern among the proponents of these ideas.
The research, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, analyzed the relationship between overconfidence and adherence to conspiracy beliefs. The data comes from eight separate studies, involving 4,181 participants in the United States.
How the Study Was Done
The participants were invited to perform a series of cognitive tasks and then evaluate how they believed they had performed in those activities. This way, the scientists could identify each individual’s level of confidence.
Those who performed poorly but believed they had done well scored higher on the overconfidence measure. This score was then compared with the degree of adherence to different conspiracy theories.
Among the theories evaluated were the ones suggesting that man never went to the moon, that vaccines are part of a government control plan, and the classic idea that the Earth is flat.
The researchers identified a consistent link between exaggerated confidence in one’s cognitive abilities and greater acceptance of these beliefs.
False Consensus and Distorted Perception
Another point that caught the team’s attention was the misconception that conspiracists have about the support their ideas receive.
Only 12% of participants claimed to believe in conspiracy theories. However, those who held these beliefs thought that nine out of ten people shared the same opinions.
This phenomenon, known as “false consensus,” was stronger among the more confident participants. In other words, in addition to believing false information, these individuals tend to presume that the majority thinks like they do.
According to Gordon Pennycook, an associate professor at Cornell University and one of the study’s authors, this disconnect between perception and reality exacerbates the problem.
He stated that conspiracy theorists “not only believe in fringe ideas, but they also lack awareness of how fringe these ideas are.”
Why It Matters
The study points out that excessive confidence can lead a person to reject reliable information and believe in discredited concepts.
This is especially concerning when these beliefs involve public interest topics, such as health and science.
According to the authors, many efforts to combat misinformation may fail precisely because those who most need to change their minds are the least willing to consider that they may be wrong.
The article highlights that people who are most susceptible to conspiracy theories tend to have weaker analytical reasoning and heightened overconfidence.
This combination makes any attempts at persuasion based on data or evidence more difficult.
The Flat Earth Theory
Among the most cited examples is flat earth theory, which asserts that the Earth is not a sphere but rather a flat disc. This theory proposes that the North Pole is at the center, surrounded by a wall of ice — Antarctica — at the edge of the disc.
Some variations still suggest that the Earth would be covered by a glass dome and that we do not orbit the Sun.
Proponents of this idea claim that all satellite images and astronomical evidence are part of an alleged conspiracy by NASA and other government agencies.
For them, science is lying — and this further reinforces the widespread distrust of those who believe in these theories.
However, the international scientific community widely rejects these claims. Decades of observations, satellite images, GPS, and peer-reviewed studies confirm that the Earth is round.
Even so, flat earth theory remains alive, mainly fueled by social media and online groups.
Study Conclusion
The results obtained by scientists from Cornell University reinforce that overconfidence plays a central role in the formation and maintenance of conspiracy beliefs.
Instead of acknowledging doubts or considering new information, these individuals remain steadfast in their convictions and still believe that most people think the same way they do.
This combination — exaggerated confidence, fragile reasoning, and distorted perception of reality — makes conspiracy theorists less receptive to any type of correction. And, according to the authors, this complicates efforts to combat misinformation on a large scale.
For those still wondering why it is so difficult to convince a flat-earther that the Earth is round, the answer may lie less in a lack of information — and more in how they overly trust themselves.
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