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The Safra Plan 2025/2026 Promises the Largest Credit in History to Agriculture, but Disputes Over Interest, Budget Execution, and Transparency Raise Questions About the Real Effectiveness of the Initiative for Producers of All Sizes.
The federal government announced the Safra Plan 2025/2026 promising the largest volume of credit ever offered to Brazilian agribusiness: R$ 516.2 billion.
This announcement, made at the Palácio do Planalto, was presented as a historic milestone for national agriculture, especially amid a scenario of economic challenges and inflationary pressures.
However, upon analyzing the details of the plan, representatives of the productive sector and experts question the true dimension of the supposed record, raising doubts about the scope and effectiveness of the measures.
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High Interest Rates and Limited Resources
According to a report from the portal Compre Rural, the main controversy related to the Safra Plan 2025/2026 lies in the high interest rates, lower-than-expected budget execution, and criticisms regarding the transparency of the figures presented.
According to Senator and former Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, the percentage of effectively new resources represents only 1.5% of the total announced.
She publicly emphasized on social media that interest rates for rural business credit reach 14% per year, compromising the investment and technological renewal capacity in the field.
Another point of concern is the low execution of the promised resources in the previous cycle.
Official data indicates that, by May 2025, approximately 30% of the amounts forecasted for the Safra Plan 2024/2025 had not been released to producers.
Senator Tereza Cristina claims that the government uses the Safra Plan as a tool for positive publicity, without ensuring the delivery of the announced amounts.
According to her, “the interest rates of the Safra Plan have shot up” and the budget execution reveals a picture far from what is seen in the official announcements.
The Government’s Speech and Rural Credit
The government, in turn, argues that the Safra Plan 2025/2026 is the largest ever launched, with a significant increase in resources for family agriculture.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states that R$ 89.2 billion is allocated to small properties, with interest rates ranging from 0.5% to 3% per year.
The Ministry also emphasizes that part of the credit lines offers conditions inferior to the market, even with the Selic fixed at 15% per year by the Central Bank, due to the fight against inflation in the country.
Inflation and Real Impact of the Safra Plan
However, the analysis of inflation-adjusted figures shows a different scenario.
The nominal growth of the volume of credit offered, at 1.5% compared to the previous cycle, is below the officially accumulated inflation of 4.8% in the last 12 months, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In real terms, this means that there has been a contraction in the available amount, harming the investment and modernization capacity of rural producers.
Another aspect that has been the subject of questioning is the pace of resource disbursement.
Historically, a significant portion of the amounts announced in the Safra Plan is only effectively disbursed many months after the beginning of the agricultural cycle.
This slowness particularly harms small and medium producers, who rely on rural credit for production costs, input purchases, and infrastructure investments.
The Cost of Rural Credit and Barriers for Small Producers
The cost of rural credit remains high, despite specific subsidies offered in some lines of the Safra Plan.
Average rates for business agribusiness range from 10% to 14% per year, which pushes some producers away from investment lines, especially in a context of tight margins and rising input costs.
The monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank, by maintaining the Selic rate at a high level to curb inflation, directly reflects in the increase of agricultural financing.
The allocation of resources for family agriculture has been expanded, but producers and representative entities claim that access to credit remains restricted due to bureaucracy and the requirements for guarantees.
According to the National Confederation of Agricultural Workers (Contag), some family farmers still face difficulties accessing financing lines with lower interest rates, limiting the effectiveness of actions aimed at this segment.
Budget Execution and Monitoring of Resources
Moreover, specialists in agricultural economics warn about the need to monitor the execution of the resources announced throughout the cycle.
The history of recent years indicates that, despite billion-dollar announcements, actual disbursement often falls short of the forecast, affecting harvest planning and the sustainable development of the agribusiness sector.
The federal government emphasizes the importance of the Safra Plan 2025/2026 to guarantee food production and promote job and income generation in the countryside.
The presented strategy also includes incentives for sustainability, such as support for agroecological practices and the expansion of credit for innovation and green technology projects.
However, sector entities highlight that, without swift disbursement of resources and with high interest rates, some of these goals may not be achieved.
The Challenge of Accessing Rural Credit and the Search for Transparency
The disparity between the announced amounts and the results perceived in the field remains one of the main challenges for the success of the Safra Plan.
Representatives of agribusiness, financial consultants, and economists emphasize the need for greater transparency in the criteria for disbursement and monitoring of resources, as well as measures to reduce the effective cost of rural credit.
In light of this scenario, rural producers remain attentive to the evolution of budget execution and the behavior of interest rates, determining factors for the success of upcoming harvests.
After all, access to credit on suitable terms is essential for the continued growth of Brazilian agribusiness.
How to ensure that the Safra Plan 2025/2026 truly meets the needs of the field, overcoming the barriers of expensive credit and low execution?
The answer may lie in transparency and close monitoring of results.
And for you, what would be the main priority to transform the Safra Plan into a truly effective public policy?
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