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Harvard Professor Robert Lawrence’s Analysis Indicates That U.S. Protectionist Policies, Instead of Strengthening the Country, Open the Way for China to Consolidate Its Leadership in Global Trade.
President Trump’s tariffs are redrawing the map of international trade, but not in the expected way. According to Harvard professor Robert Lawrence, the actions of the U.S. government are weakening the historical leadership of the United States. Instead of isolating its competitors, the primary beneficiary of this new policy will ironically be China. The American strategy is undermining confidence in the system they themselves helped to build.
The U.S. Strategy and the Weakening of Global Trade
The trade order established after the Second World War, led by the U.S., is under threat. Donald Trump’s policies are actively undermining this system. Robert Lawrence points out that by adopting a unilateral stance, the United States is eroding the norms and predictability of global trade. This shift in posture creates an unstable environment where established rules lose their strength.
The Pretext for New Tariff Barriers
One of the most controversial tactics is the use of national security as a justification for imposing tariffs. Products such as steel and aluminum have been taxed under this claim, which contradicts the practices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Furthermore, imposing tariffs as a tool to pressure other countries on non-economic issues further undermines the structure of international trade.
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The Loss of Trust in the United States as a Partner
By violating trade agreements, both from the WTO and regional ones, the United States is losing its credibility. The country is no longer seen as a reliable trading partner. This distrust leads other nations to seek alternatives. The direct consequence is the strengthening of regional trade agreements that could completely exclude the U.S., isolating the country from the global scene.
The Leadership Vacuum and China’s Rise in the Global Scene
With the loss of U.S. leadership and credibility, a power vacuum emerges. According to Professor Lawrence, China is the one that benefits the most. The Asian country seizes the opportunity to position itself as a new leader in global trade. China gains influence, strengthens its relationships with other countries, and establishes itself as a stable alternative to the instability generated by Trump’s tariffs.
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