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Dollar Falls Slightly Against the Real, Following the Movement of Emerging Currencies, While the Market Monitors Indicators and Statements from Authorities
At 10:36 AM on October 23, 2025, the spot dollar showed a decrease of 0.33%, trading at R$ 5.379 for sale.
On the B3, the November contract, the most liquid at the moment, fell 0.34%, to R$ 5.395.
This movement follows external behavior and reflects investors’ expectations for upcoming economic data.
Commercial Dollar: buy R$ 5.379, sell R$ 5.379.
Tourism Dollar: buy R$ 5.415, sell R$ 5.595.
DXY Index: +0.09%, at 99.018 points.
Performance Abroad
In the international scenario, the dollar lost strength against emerging currencies such as the South African rand, the Chilean peso, and the Mexican peso.
However, it gained against strong currencies like the yen and the British pound.
This behavior demonstrates a cautious environment and adjustments ahead of important economic events.
Expectations with CPI and FOMC
Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States on Friday (10/24).
Next Wednesday (10/29), they expect the decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve.
According to José Faria Júnior, director of Wagner Investimentos, “if the CPI does not come in stronger and there is a rate cut, the dollar could fall back to R$ 5.30 again.”
Thus, the real could benefit if the numbers reinforce the expectation of a softer monetary policy.
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Political and Economic Statements
During a visit to Indonesia on October 23, 2025, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated that he intends to run for re-election, seeking a fourth term.
He affirmed: “I will be 80 years old, but I have the same energy as when I was 30. I will run for a fourth term in Brazil.”
In a speech at the Indonesia-Brazil Business Forum, Lula criticized the neoliberal recipe and emphasized that the country will not be just a commodities exporter.
The president also stated that Brazil will propose at COP30 the quadrupling of sustainable fuel usage, reinforcing the commitment to energy transition.
Central Bank Maintains Cautious Position
This Thursday (10/23), the president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, stated that the institution is “very uncomfortable” with inflation and the expectations outside the target.
Despite acknowledging the disinflation process, Galípolo reiterated that the Selic rate, currently at 15% per year, should remain at a restrictive level for longer.
The intention is to contain inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability, according to him.
Asset Performance
The domestic market showed slight fluctuations throughout the morning.
At 10:40 AM, the Ibovespa rose 0.43%, to 145,491 points, while the IFIX advanced 0.02%, to 3,568 points.
Among the most traded stocks, PETR4 increased 1.47%, VALE3 gained 0.68%, GGBR4 advanced 0.78% and ABEV3 had an increase of 0.08%.
In contrast, MGLU3 fell 5.88%.
The Bitcoin recorded an increase of 1.50%, quoted at R$ 590,161.
These results indicate a cautious market, but with a positive trend ahead of the upcoming international economic data.
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